This is the second in a series of articles about the future of agriculture. The series isn’t an attempt to forecast next month’s canola prices, but a look at what Canadian agriculture might look like in the long term, 20 years from now.
In the first article in the series, we looked at foresight, a formal planning process that recommends learning all you can about the entire business system you’re working in, then watching for small changes — called “signals” by the foresight experts — anywhere within that system. Once a signal has been identified, foresight experts use their understanding of the links within the system to see how that signal might have an impact on each business within the system in the future.
With that groundwork laid, we set out now to find a range of experts working in the agriculture and food industry. We ask them what signals they’re noticing, and what changes they see in our collective future, and how we might prepare for these changes at the farm level.
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One of these experts is Alberta-based Robert Saik, a noted agrologist, entrepreneur and international consultant. Saik was the founder of AgriTrend/Agri-Data Group of Companies, a business that has been acquired by Trimble, and he served as the CEO of DOT, the company building autonomous farm equipment.
Now Saik is the founder and CEO of AGVisorPro and Saik Management Group.
A new mindset
Like most farmers, Saik sees change coming to all areas of the ag sector, driven by improved data availability, new technology, and changing world trade patterns. In the midst of all of these changes, Saik has identified a key priority: “the mental machinery that it takes to run a farm operation.”
In 20 years, we’ll need to invest in new technology, new ways of managing data and new pest and disease solutions. But if we’re going to be truly successful, Saik says, “we need to spend more time honing the mental engines of farm operators, and farmers need to spend a lot more time investing in themselves.”
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With technology and machinery developments, every year there is less physical work involved in agriculture. A lot of the hardest work is mental. “It’s increasingly about consolidating information, disseminating information, running teams and making long-term decisions so your short-term decisions fall in line,” Saik says. Farmers need to organize their time to make sure they understand the implications of the information that will affect their farms.
How does Saik ensure that his mental engine is up to the task? He makes building mental skills a priority in his life. Every 90 days, Saik travels to meet with a coach, making time to review his business and his life. “I just started my 29th year with a coach,” Saik says. “I’ve invested hundreds of thousands of dollars into my personal coaching.”
Saik’s coach uses a peer-to-peer model, giving Saik access to other entrepreneurs who work in different industries but face similar challenges. “When you think about successful farmers and you think about entrepreneurs, they have one thing in common: They’re extremely lonely. That is because nobody understands them.” Successful farmers, he says, aren’t the ones going to the coffee shop to talk. They’re the farmers people in the coffee shop are talking about.
“As an entrepreneur, my number one asset is my confidence,” Saik says. Saik’s confidence comes from understanding himself and the industry he’s working in. Successful farmers also need that confidence, and they will still need confidence 20 years from now. “Farmers of the future will have to spend a lot of time honing their skill sets.”
From IOT to IOP
In 20 years, farmers are going to need to be prepared to cope with the enormous explosion of data coming from their own farm. Saik envisions sensors collecting reams of on-farm information from animals, equipment, crops and storage facilities. “We’re going to see the development of all sorts of IOT,” he says, referring to the “internet of things” — physical objects embedded with sensors and connected to software.
Farmers will need to figure out the best way to use that data. This, Saik says, will require the IOP — Saik’s term for the “internet of people.” No one farmer can be strong in every area of the business. To build strength in their areas of weakness, farmers will need connections to other farmers and to experts. When farmers have specific problems or questions, they’ll need to connect with professionals with the right specialization. It’s unlikely that the right expert will be geographically close. Farmers will need to build their own networks, IOPs.
Anticipating this, Saik’s newest project, AGVisorPro connects farmers and agronomists to experts who can answer their specific questions. He is also working as a coach for farmer peer groups through what he calls his PowerFARM program.
Farmers of the future will be under pressure to combine their own on-farm information with market, weather and geopolitical data. “The demands of the farm of the future are going to be a lot more mental than we realize,” Saik says.
