It was an example of how a combination of weather, geopolitical events and Prairie farmers’ rotation plans could make the headlines last spring — French supermarket shelves were devoid of mustard.
French Dijon mustard must contain a certain percentage of French brown mustard seed to be considered a product of France. But France’s domestic production dropped by at least 50 per cent last year due to poor growing conditions. At the same time, Canada — the world’s third-largest mustard producer after Nepal and Russia — saw a drop in acres coupled with a disastrous 2021 growing season.
Russia’s war with Ukraine, which slowed exports from the former and all but stopped exports from the latter, exacerbated the problem.
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But this year’s supply problem has roots in the past.
A few years back, with mustard prices low, growers began switching to canola.
“Our acres kind of dwindled away,” says Rick Mitchell, executive director of Sask Mustard. “Once we ran into last year, we had a major drought, and all of a sudden our yields were cut in less than half of normal, which really set us back in terms of supply.”
Mitchell says that in the last three to five years, Canadian plantings have hovered around 300,000 acres, and production was about 100,000 tonnes in 2020. It dropped to just 60,532 tonnes in 2021.
“Mustard is a little more drought-tolerant than other crops but you still need moisture to grow it. Last year we averaged about seven bushels per acre on mustard where we’re normally running 20. It wasn’t just mustard that was down, everything else was down.”
Scott Cunningham is chief operating officer for Schlüter & Maack Canada, a major mustard processor and partner to the European condiment industry. He says the main problem is the lack of competitive pricing for mustard seed. Production has been driven down by low prices over the last four years because the buyers’ mandate has been to buy low rather than to ensure supply. “Mustard acres consistently declined directly related to the end-users’ unwillingness to pay a competitive price,” he says.
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Last year, some mustard growers’ acres were contracted as low as 40 cents per pound, says grower and consultant Kevin Hursh. At some point during the winter, prices shot up as high as $2 per pound for yellow and brown. These days, it’s still high at around 90 cents.
“After last year we contracted most of the mustard around 70 cents a pound, and that number reflected a huge increase in acres,” says Cunningham. “What we seeded this year was well above the average. Mustard acres are directly related to price, and as soon as buyers realize that they won’t have a supply problem.”
Production problems
Hursh says mustard is a comparatively hardy crop that you can grow almost anywhere, but over time it’s been displaced by canola to the drier areas of southern Saskatchewan and Alberta.
“In the canola-growing areas the production has really retreated to where canola isn’t suited,” he says. “Mustard also yields far less than canola, it’s more difficult to control weeds and it’s more finicky, so even in the prime mustard-growing areas, canola is dominant.”
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But it’s not a simple matter to reclaim canola acres for mustard. “If you grow canola you can’t grow mustard for three to five years after that, because the volunteers get in there and reduce the grade,” Hursh says.
Some mustard growers — Hursh included — don’t grow canola at all due to the risk of cross-contamination.
Cunningham says that can be an issue for exports to Europe given its market restrictions on GMOs.
When there’s too much off-grade supply of brown mustard seed, the No. 1 price goes up to compensate for availability of seed that can be exported, which in turn drops the value of the tainted seed due to limitations on where producers can go with mustard with canola mixed in.
He says the only way to get rid of off-grade brown mustard is to slowly blend it off. There are more options for yellow. “We always tell farmers that if they’re going to seed any mustard seed on acres that haven’t been canola free for four years, put yellow mustard in, because you can at least colour-sort the seed out. That doesn’t apply to brown.”
Supply chain issues
This year’s western Canadian production is decent with yields at about 80 per cent of the five-year average, says Cunningham. This will go a long way toward meeting global demand. But we’re not there yet.
“People are pressing and pushing to get shipments sooner,” he says. “(But) what hasn’t changed on the Prairies is that no additional mustard-processing was put in place due to the drought, and everybody (seems) unaware we’re still in a shipping and supply chain crisis. There’s only so much processing on the Prairies and only so many containers can get to Europe.”
As a result, prices will remain high this year. For next year, Cunningham is already seeing farmers pricing new-crop brown mustard seed. He believes 2023 will have starting prices higher than last year, which will keep acres up — a scenario that’s good for everyone.
“It’s in mustard’s best interests to remain high, so we’re trying to figure out what that price is that levels out the mustard acres because we don’t want huge swings,” he says. “We’re trying to figure out what price rewards good mustard growers and we can get to the 450,000-acre basis for mustard. Weather is always a factor so you want to manage your acres. You don’t want an oversupply and you don’t want an undersupply.
“We just want really good farmers in the traditional mustard growing areas to be confident that mustard is going to be very competitive with canola.”
