North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Canola sinks with soy, weak demand

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Published: August 1, 2018

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, August 1 (CNS Canada) – Canola contracts on the ICE Futures platform finished lower on Wednesday, weighed down by losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans and some fund selling.

Demand for canola was lukewarm and crusher buying was light.

The market was undergoing a bit of a downward correction after yesterday’s strong gains. Losses in soyoil were also bearish.

The upside for canola is clearly limited right now, according to an analyst in Winnipeg.

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“Buyers will wait for new crop,” he said. “Why buy it now when they can get it cheaper later on?”

On the other side, excess dryness in Western Canada kept a weather premium in the market.

About 11,445 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 12,724 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,174 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade dropped sharply Wednesday, after President Donald Trump tweeted that higher tariffs could be coming to China. The news surprised many investors as ideas were circulating on Tuesday that the two sides were set to resume negotiations.

Weather conditions in the American Midwest this week aren’t going to be quite as hot as expected, which was bearish.

The USDA condition rating for the U.S. soybean crop also stayed relatively stable this week, when most analysts expected it to decline.

The corn market dipped in sympathy with soybeans.

Prices were also correcting lower after hitting their highest point since mid-June on Tuesday.

However, weekly ethanol stocks were down 300,000 barrels this week, which suggests demand could be set to rise.

Chicago wheat futures trended higher in follow-through buying.

Germany’s harvest is pegged at 18 million tonnes this year, that’s about 25 per cent less than last year.

Russian wheat exports are expected to be around 35 million tonnes this year, which would be down from last year’s total of 37 million.

Wheat futures in Minneapolis and Kansas City also rose in technical trading.

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