North American Grains/Oilseed Review: Canola continues to rise with summer heat

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Published: August 8, 2018

By Dave Sims, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, August 8 (CNS Canada) – Canola contracts on the ICE Futures platform continued their upward momentum Wednesday, taking strength from follow-through buying and hot temperatures in Western Canada.

The current heat wave has raised concerns about canola yields, particularly in southwest Saskatchewan and southern Alberta.

“The heat is cooking the crop out there,” said a trader in Winnipeg.

Speculative buying and gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans supported canola futures.

On Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its supply and demand estimates, which many traders were also starting to prepare for.

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Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange were still reeling on Friday following the release of Statistics Canada’s bearish canola production…

However, losses in CBOT soyoil were bearish for values.

About 18,740 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 13,113 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,798 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade finished higher Wednesday. The market continued to take support from this week’s crop condition rating, which found the soybean crop had deteriorated more than most analysts expected.

On Friday the United States Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly supply and demand estimates. Traders at Reuters and Bloomberg pegged the soybean yield at 49.6 bushels an acre, which was up from the previous forecast of 49.4 bpa.

An outbreak of African swine fever has been reported in some Chinese hog farms, prompting a wave of new inspections.

Chinese soybean imports continue to drop. The latest data from the county’s government shows soybean imports fell eight per cent in July, compared to a month earlier.

The corn market ended close to unchanged Wednesday in tight, technical trade.

The market was chopping around in range-bound trade as investors positioned themselves ahead of Friday’s USDA report. Most analysts are predicting the U.S. corn yield to be around 176 bushels an acre in Friday’s report.

A report out of Chinese indicates the government is thinking of cutting corn imports by 10 million tonnes.

Chicago wheat futures ended slightly higher in range-bound trade.

Most analysts expect U.S. all wheat production to be down by 24 million bushels in Friday’s report, which was bullish for prices.

Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it won’t accept any more wheat from Canada isn’t expected to impact the market. It’s been years since that country imported any Canadian wheat shipments of note.

Some showers are expected to fall in the U.S. Southern Plains tomorrow, which should help alleviate some of the dryness plaguing that region.

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