North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Rangebound canola edges lower

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Published: November 13, 2019

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm

Winnipeg, Nov. 13 (MarketsFarm) – ICE Futures canola contracts were slightly lower at Wednesday’s close, after trading within a narrow range throughout the session.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil accounted for much of the spillover selling pressure in canola, according to traders. Ample supplies in the commercial pipeline and a lack of significant end user demand also weighed on values.

Ideas that any weather related concerns across the Prairies are priced into the futures for the time being contributed to the bearish undertone, despite the sizeable amount of unharvested acres that will likely be left over the winter.

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On the other side, a slow-down in farmer selling and ideas that canola is looking cheap compared to other oilseeds provided support.

About 11,409 canola contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 14,768 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 8,148 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were narrowly mixed on Wednesday, with the bias lower at the close.
The US soybean harvest was 85 per cent complete as of this past Sunday, according to the latest United States Department of Agriculture report. While that was slightly behind normal, it was in line with market expectations.

The USDA reported private export sales of 106,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

Brazil’s CONAB revised their soybean production estimate for the country to 120.9 million tonnes, which was higher than an earlier forecast, but still about two million tonnes below the USDA’s current projection.

Investors were also keeping an eye on impeachment proceedings against U.S. President Donald Trump, underway in Washington.

CORN was lower, taking back Tuesday’s gains.

Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 98.4 million tonnes by CONAB. That was only a slight revision from the previous estimate, but still about three million tonnes below the USDA’s forecast.

The U.S. corn harvest was pegged at 66 per cent done, which came in the lower end of trade guesses and compares with the normal for this time of year of 85 per cent done.

WHEAT futures were down, as all three contracts corrected after Tuesday’s rally.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was 88 per cent seeded as of this past Sunday, which was four points off the five-year average for this time of year.

The crop already out there was rated 54 per cent good-to-excellent, down only slightly from last year’s 57 per cent reading.

Forecasts calling for freezing temperatures across much of the winter wheat belt were somewhat supportive, as the cold weather is coming earlier than normal and could cause some damage at this stage of development.

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