North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Harvest uncertainty keeps market steady

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Published: September 24, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Sep. 24 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts held near unchanged in thin and choppy activity on Monday, although the bias was lower at the closing bell.

Losses in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans accounted for some spillover selling pressure in canola, according to participants, with the Canadian oilseed still looking expensive compared to its United States counterpart.

However, cool and wet conditions across Western Canada were supportive. There was little relief in the forecasts, as the adverse weather continues to cause harvest delays for the crop still on the fields. Quality and yield downgrades are likely for the roughly 50-per cent of the canola still left to be harvested.

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The Canadian dollar was slightly weaker, which provided some support as well.

About 7,101 canola contracts traded, which compares with Friday when 12,630 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 3,608 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade posted losses on Monday, with the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China accounting for much of the selling pressure. The latest round of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports went into effect today and China cancelled a planned round of talks.

Brazilian farmers are reportedly making a good start to seeding their next crop, which also weighed on values.

However, the USDA did announce a new private sale of 162,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

CORN futures were stronger, as speculators covering short positions gave the market a boost. Harvest delaying weather across parts of the Midwest was also supportive.

Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.2 million tonnes topped both the week ago and the year ago level.

WHEAT futures were higher, hitting their best levels of the past month on the back of speculative buying.

Persistent dryness concerns in Australia remained supportive, while the harvest delaying weather in parts of Canada also provided some support.

However, the U.S. continues to miss out on export opportunities.
END

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