ICE weekly outlook: Highs might be in for old-crop canola

New crop in 'a very uncertain stage'

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Published: May 18, 2022

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ICE July 2022 canola (candlesticks) with Bollinger bands (20,2) and November 2022 canola (black line). (Barchart)

MarketsFarm — The highs may be in for old-crop canola contracts on the ICE Futures platform, with attention in the market turning to the new crop.

“I think the market has probably defined the upside potential and the acute demand rationing that needed to occur is done,” said Jerry Klassen, an independent commodity trader and analyst in Winnipeg.

Domestic crushers typically reduce their demand over the summer months as they put some attention to maintenance and upgrades, he said. Meanwhile, the old-crop export business has already been shut off for some time.

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For the new crop, “we’re in a very uncertain stage,” according to Klassen. Canola seeding has yet to get underway in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan due to persistent rains. Planting is moving forward to the west, but fields there are dry.

Klassen said there was still plenty of demand to come forward for new-crop canola, but added that buyers were waiting until the crop was seeded before making any major commitments.

While seeding has been delayed in the eastern Prairies, there is still plenty of time to get the crop in the ground, said Klassen, noting “if it was June 15, it would be a different story.”

The moisture will also be beneficial for crops in the region overall.

“Once we do start seeding in eastern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, we’ll have greenhouse conditions,” Klassen said.

Cooler temperatures, as have been seen so far this spring, also generally correlate with above average canola yields.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

About The Author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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