CBOT weekly outlook: Harvest pressure to weigh on soy, corn

MarketsFarm — Seasonal harvest pressure may weigh on soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade over the next month, but there is also still good support on the other side, according to an analyst.

“The biggest trouble now for the market is the harvest pressure coming in,” said Tom Lilja of Progressive Ag at Fargo, N.D.

Reduced demand for corn from the ethanol sector, due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, put some added pressure on the grain, he added.

However, both commodities continue to see solid demand, with steady sales of both soybeans and corn to China coming in on a near daily basis.

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Concerns that dryness in Europe will cut into winter rapeseed acres there have spilled over to underpin the overall oilseed complex, especially CBOT soyoil and ICE canola, Lilja said.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its quarterly stocks report on Wednesday next week (Sept. 30), which will also provide key directional bias for soybeans and corn.

For the wheat market, attention is currently on weather conditions in Ukraine and Russia. The extended forecasts are calling for very dry conditions and “if that area misses some rain in the next week, we could see a decent bump in the wheat market,” said Lilja.

However, “if the rains hit, then I think the (wheat) market will be content to trade in a range.”

The southern U.S. Plains are also dry, but Lilja said that was being offset somewhat by rain in Australia.

— Phil Franz-Warkentin reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.

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