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When You Can’t Be Right

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Published: November 9, 2009

The shrewdest words in this issue of
Country Guide belong to Saskatchewan
farmer Russ Leguee. His family, like so many
farm families across this country, is wrestling
with the prospect of the parents transtioning
into a well-earned retirement, with the children
potentially taking over.

Leguee was talking about his three children
and the kind of commitment they need
to show to the farm. They have to be willing
to go the distance, willing to make mistakes,
Leguee told writer Anne Lazurko.
And it will be the timing of those mistakes
that will cause success or failure.

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Editor’s Note: No pressure

What is your playbook going into this year’s crop? Not an easy question to answer right now, given the global…

Sometimes the best planning can fail,
Leguee expanded. But you have to be prepared
for that as well.

In this year s Money Management issue,
we ve given extra space to preparing for
what your plans may not be prepared for.
We ve tried to bring you multiple perspectives
on interest rates. We ve brought you
cutting-edge thinking, from front-line business
advisors, from bankers, and from academics
in the West and in the East and
sometimes their perspectives are in direct
conflict with each other.

To the best of our knowledge, none of them
are wrong. But then, none of them are right
either. All we can do is assure you that we tried
to show you exactly why they think the way
they do, so you can judge for yourself.

Uncertainty is everywhere. No one knew
that grain and oilseed prices would tail off
so rapidly after their 2007 peak, nor does
anyone know when and how violently interest
rates will break out of their historic lull.
Another wise farmer, this time a silver-haired
gentleman who lived down the road from
me, pulled me aside many years ago. The
worst thing about farming is that it goes in
cycles, he said. And the worst thing about
cycles is that wherever you are in the cycle,
you think it s going to be that way forever.

Time and again, history has proven him
right. When markets are up, all you can see
are reasons why prices should keep going
up. And when markets are down, all you
can see are reasons why they should keep
sinking. Our world, it turns out, is more
psychological than scientific, and because
of that, it s more random than any plan can
adequately predict.

In this issue, we show you how to build
your own strategies with tools like laddering,
scenario planning and getting your
ratios right. It s what we think our role is.
Country Guide is invested in the idea that
the real energy that is driving agriculture
isn t the new technology out of the genetics
companies or the electronics labs. The
energy that is driving agriculture is the vision
of the individual farmer.

It s impossible to praise this too much. If
it weren t for farmers indefinable sense of
sanity amidst the insane, civilization could
never have been possible. Nor would it be
in future. Volatile conditions lay ahead,
and they re conditions that everyone will be
wrong about.

We believe that overall, farmers will
find their way. Let us know what you
think. I m at 519-674-1449 or
[email protected].

About The Author

Tom Button

Tom Button

Editor

Tom Button is editor of Country Guide magazine.

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