U.S. Grain/Oilseed Review: Fears of oil shortage drives up prices

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SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Friday, as Qatar’s energy minister warned oil production in the Gulf region could come to a halt due to the war.

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Wall Street Journal that he expects China to further increase their purchases of U.S. soybeans.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply and demand estimates on Tuesday. The carryover for U.S. soybeans was projected to be 265 million to 384 million bushels compared to 350 million in February.

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Trade expectations for Brazil soybean production averaged 179.20 million tonnes compared to the USDA’s 180 million last month. Argentina’s output is to slip to 48.10 million tonnes from 48.50 million.

AgroConsult upped its call on the Brazil soybean harvest by 850,000 tonnes at 183.10 million.

Brazil soybean exports in February were 7.11 million tonnes, 10.7 per cent more than the previous February.

Conab placed the Brazil soybean harvest at about 42 per cent complete, six points behind last year’s pace.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange placed the Argentina soybean crop at 30 per cent good to excellent, up one point from last week.

CORN futures were higher on Friday, following crude oil to the upside.

Estimates for March corn ending stocks ranged from 2.03 billion to 2.43 billion, versus 2.13 billion in February.

Analysts suggested the USDA will place Brazil corn production at 132.90 million tonnes, up from 131 million in February. The Argentina corn harvest is expected to be trimmed by 100,000 tonnes at 52.90 million.

Conab placed the first Brazil corn harvest at 25 per cent finished, virtually on par with a year ago. The planting of the second crop was 65 per cent done, four points behind last year.

The BAGE placed the Argentina corn harvest at seven per cent complete and the crop rated 55 per cent good to excellent, up 11 points from last week. The BAGE held to its production estimate of 57 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures advanced on Friday, due to gains in crude oil.

The U.S. Drought Monitor added six points to the amount of winter wheat area in drought, now at 56 per cent. Spring wheat area rose three points at 19 per cent.

U.S. wheat ending stocks, currently at 931 million bushels, are expected to be 856 million to 956 million bushels.

France kept its soft wheat crop rating at 84 per cent good to excellent and its durum stayed at 81 per cent.

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