North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola hits fresh 15-month lows

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Published: November 14, 2018

By Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Nov. 14 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures canola contracts were mostly lower on Wednesday, with the most active months hitting their weakest levels since August 2017 as speculative selling weighed on values.

Some of the activity tied to spreading against Chicago Board of Trade soybeans, which were higher on the day.

The settlement below C$480 per tonne in the January contract was bearish from a technical standpoint, opening the door for a test of the next support level at C$475, according to a trader.

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However, without an outside catalyst, canola may be running out of room to the downside. End-user bargain hunting and a slowdown in farmer selling provided some support.

About 14,566 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 10,942 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,594 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Wednesday, finding support from the slower-than-normal Midwestern harvest pace.

The United States soybean harvest was 88 per cent complete in the latest weekly U.S. Department of Agriculture report. That was up five points from the previous week, but off the average for this time of year of 93 per cent done.

The USDA also announced a flash sale of 148,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to unknown destinations this morning.

However, good crop weather in Brazil and Argentina tempered the upside in beans amid expectations for large South American crops this year.

CORN futures were narrowly mixed at the close. The U.S. corn harvest was 84 per cent done in the latest report, which was only three points off the average pace.

Forecasts are calling for relatively favourable Midwestern harvest weather over the next week.

The USDA announced a flash sale of 212,000 tonnes of corn to Mexico this morning, providing some support.

WHEAT futures were mostly lower, despite winter wheat seeding delays in some key wheat growing states.

U.S. winter wheat seedings were 89 per cent complete in the latest weekly USDA report, which compares with the 94 per cent average for this time of year. With it getting late in the season, there are ideas that some intended acres may be left unseeded this year. Emergence was also behind normal, at 77 per cent.

However, condition ratings for what is in the ground improved to 54 per cent good to excellent, up three points from last week.

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