Glacier FarmMedia — The ICE Futures canola market remained pointed higher on Thursday, seeing some independent strength amid optimism over looming trade talks with China.
- Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China next week, with ideas the trip could lead to an easing of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola underpinning the futures.
- Speculative short-covering and bullish chart signals contributed to the gains, although an analyst noted that the March contract was nearing resistance at C$630 per tonne.
- Losses in Chicago soybeans weighed on values, although soyoil managed to settle with small gains after earlier losses. European rapeseed was also higher.
- Large supplies and expectations for burdensome carryout stocks tempered the upside.
- There were 39,246 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 36,117 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,130 of the contracts traded.
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SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were weaker Thursday, as weekly export sales failed to live up to expectations.
- The United States Department of Agriculture reported weekly export sales of 877,900 tonnes of U.S. soybeans as of Jan. 1, which was at the low end of pre-report estimates.
- Flash sales of 132,000 tonnes of soybeans to China were also reported Thursday morning, but there had been talk of more business.
- Large South American production prospects remained a bearish influence, with the Brazilian harvest in its early stages.
CORN futures were narrowly mixed, with positioning ahead of next week’s monthly supply/demand estimates from the USDA a feature. Quarterly stocks data will be released in addition to updated production estimates.
- Weekly U.S. corn export sales hit a marketing year low of 377,598 tonnes during the holiday period ended Jan. 1. The sales were below trade estimates ranging from 700,000 to 1.5 million tonnes.
WHEAT futures narrowly mixed Thursday, with precipitation in the forecast for dry regions of the southern U.S. Plains weighing on values.
- Weekly U.S. wheat export sales of 118,700 tonnes were below the low end of trade estimates.
- Monday’s USDA data will include winter wheat planting estimates, with average trade estimates calling for a reduction in area from the 33.153 million acres of winter wheat planted for the 2025 harvest.
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