SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were higher on Thursday, as optimism over increased export demand more than countered expectations for a larger crop in the United States.
- The U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast a 3.8 million-acre increase in domestic soybean plantings in 2026, predicting seeded area of 85.0 million acres at its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. That was in line with trade expectations.
- Weekly export data was delayed until Friday due to Monday’s Presidents Day holiday.
- Expectations for increased Chinese demand following the Lunar New Year holiday provided some support, with the solid crush data announced earlier in the week also still underpinning the market.
- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is expected to submit proposed biofuel blending quotas for 2026 to the White House sometime this week.
- Large Brazilian crop prospects tempered the upside.
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- U.S. wheat plantings were forecast at 45.0 million acres by the USDA, which would be down by 300,000 acres on the year and near trade estimates. Yields were forecast to be down by five per cent, at 50.8 bushels per acre.
- The International Grains Council expects global wheat and corn supplies could tighten in 2026/27, citing reduced harvested area. Detailed supply/demand data for the new crop year will likely be released in March. World wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were revised lower by one million tonnes, at 282 million tonnes — which would still be up by 19 million tonnes on the year.
CORN futures posted small losses, failing to find any support from the USDA’s call for reduced corn area this year.
- The USDA estimated corn plantings this spring at 94.0 million acres, which would be down by 4.8 million acres from 2025 and slightly lower than average trade guesses.
