Reuters — A sharp drop in the sunflower seed crop in 2025 combined with the introduction of export duties on oilseeds will lead to a surge in domestic processing of rapeseed and soybeans, the volume of which may exceed exports, analyst ASAP Agri said on Dec. 5.
Why it matters: Canadian canola could see increased European demand if more Ukrainian rapeseed is processed domestically instead of making its way into export channels.
Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of sunflower oil, but production may decline significantly in the 2025/26 season as drought and high temperatures in the southern regions of the country have significantly reduced the sunflower harvest.
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ASAP Agri analyst Victoria Blazhko told the Latifundist agricultural website that Ukraine’s 2025 sunflower seed harvest could total 10.4 million tonnes from about 12 million tonnes in 2024.
The consultancy has consistently lowered its harvest forecast to 10.4 million tonnes from 10.8 million tonnes and 11.4 million tonnes due to deteriorating weather conditions.
Blazhko said Ukraine has the capacity to process at least 20 million tonnes of oilseeds a year, and with the low sunseed crop, companies have started processing soybeans and rapeseed. Exports of soybeans and rapeseed were effectively halted at the start of the season due to the introduction of a 10 per cent export duty.
She said that rapeseed processing was likely to reach a record 1.4 million tonnes compared to 490,000 tonnes last season, while soybean processing was expected to rise to three million tonnes from 2.8 million tonnes.
“Domestic processing is increasingly replacing exports, and the balance in the market is shifting in favour of processing factories,” Blazhko said.
In previous seasons, Ukraine has exported most of its rapeseed and soybean harvest.
Analyst APK-Inform said last month Ukrainian sunflower oil output could decrease to 5.13 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 5.24 million tonnes in 2024/25 and 6.63 million tonnes in 2023/24.
APK-Inform also said Ukrainian soybean exports could fall to 2.43 million tonnes in 2025/26 from 4.16 million tonnes in 2024/25, while exports of rapeseed may fall to 2.35 million tonnes from 3.14 million tonnes in 2024/25.
— Reporting by Pavel Polityuk
