Chicago | Reuters – U.S. corn futures slid to a three-month low on Tuesday, extending declines from the prior day triggered by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s outlook for massive supplies following a record-large U.S. harvest.
Soybeans touched a two-and-a-half-month low after the USDA on Monday trimmed its U.S. export view and raised its harvest estimate for rival supplier Brazil, while wheat futures followed corn and soybeans lower.
The USDA caught the corn market wrong-footed by increasing its estimate of the 2025 U.S. harvest to a new record, contrary to expectations of a downward revision, while also pegging U.S. quarterly stocks of the cereal at their largest ever.
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Large gap in canola ending stocks between AAFC, USDA
There’s a 760,000-tonne difference in the ending stocks for Canada’s 2025/26 canola crop respectively estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture. Aside from that, the canola data from AAFC and the USDA remain quite similar.
Losses on Tuesday were tempered by bargain-buying and technical support, and as traders turned their focus to weather in Brazil, where farmers will soon be planting their large second corn crop.
“For corn, this was a rip-the-Band-Aid-off event and these are probably the worst numbers we’re going to see. If anything, there is some risk on South American weather,” said Ted Seifried, chief market strategist at Zaner Group.
“But for soybeans, I don’t feel like it’s the same sort of mentality,” he said.
Brazil’s record-large harvest is likely to undercut demand for U.S. soy in the coming months, and it remains unclear if a recent surge in U.S. purchases by China will continue after a 12-million-metric-ton buying target is achieved.
Chicago Board of Trade March corn CH26 fell 1-3/4 cents to $4.19-3/4 a bushel after earlier touching the lowest point for a most-active contract Cv1 since October 16. March soybeans SH26 were down 10-1/4 cents at $10.38-3/4 a bushel, the lowest price since October 23. CBOT March wheat WH26 was down 3/4 cent at $5.10-1/2 a bushel.
-Additional reporting by Daphne Zhang in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Gus Trompiz in Paris
