U.S. grains: Chicago grains, soy rebound on demand uptick, weak dollar

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Published: March 13, 2025

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Detail from the front of the CBOT building in Chicago. (Vito Palmisano/iStock/Getty Images)

Chicago | Reuters—Chicago Board of Trade corn and soybean futures turned higher on Thursday, after private estimates for Argentina’s corn and soy crops fell, analysts said.

Wheat futures also rose after Russia’s IKAR cut its wheat export forecasts, sparking buying interest in U.S. wheat futures.

However, traders remained cautious given twists and turns in U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff war.

“The tariff situation is clouding the situation a little bit,” Mark Soderberg, analyst at ADM Investor Services, said.

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The USDA and AAFC differ on Canada’s canola ending stocks for 2025/26, while an analyst says both agencies are wrong. Photo: Greg Berg

Large gap in canola ending stocks between AAFC, USDA

There’s a 760,000-tonne difference in the ending stocks for Canada’s 2025/26 canola crop respectively estimated by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture. Aside from that, the canola data from AAFC and the USDA remain quite similar.

The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Cv1settled up 4-1/2 cents to $4.65-1/4 a bushel. CBOT soybeans Sv1settled up 10-1/4 cents at $10.10-3/4 per bushel and CBOT wheat Wv1settled up 8-1/2 cents at $5.62-1/2 a bushel.

Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange lowered its outlooks for the nation’s 2024-25 corn and soy harvests on Wednesday, adding support to U.S. corn and soy futures.

“Those numbers are having an impact,” said Jim Gerlach, president of A/C Trading.

Soybean futures also received a boost from higher-than-expected weekly U.S. soybean export sales. However, expectations for a massive soybean harvest in top-supplier Brazil continue to hang over futures.

Grain markets were unsettled on Wednesday by the implementation of increased U.S. tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, prompting the European Union and Canada to announce retaliatory duties on a range of U.S. goods.

The EU package, which could see the bloc reintroduce a 25 per cent duty on U.S. corn and potentially add a tariff on U.S. soybeans, added to concern about disruption to U.S. exports caused by President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive.

—Additional reporting by Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore

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