Chicago | Reuters — Chicago grains took a dive on Friday, following a closely watched U.S. government crop report and the release of export data that could provide clues into Chinese buying.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade Sv1 fell 22-1/2 cents to $11.24-1/2 a bushel.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture put out its first global supply and demand outlook since September following the end of the 43-day U.S. government shutdown.
The USDA pegged the average 2025 U.S. corn yield at 186.0 bushels per acre, down from 186.7 on September 12. It lowered its production estimate to 16.752 billion bushels, from 16.814 billion a month earlier.
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For soybeans, the USDA projected 2025 U.S. yield at 53.0 bpa, down from 53.5 bpa in September. Production was projected at 4.253 billion bushels, down from 4.301 billion bushels.
But corn and soybeans dropped as the market reacted to the new data, with the trade expecting deeper cuts from the agency.
“The corn yield did not come down nearly as much as the trade thought and ending stocks go up so overall supply is bearish,” said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities.
Many market players were also expecting smaller soybean yield numbers, said Roose.
The agency also sent out a six-week summary of daily U.S. agricultural sales, offering some clarity on China’s recent U.S. soybean buying.
USDA data showed exporters sold 100,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2025/2026 delivery on October 30. They sold 232,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for 2025/2026 on November 3.
Reuters has previously reported that China has begun modest purchases of U.S. farm goods, but Beijing has not confirmed the White House’s announcement of 12 million metric tons of soybean purchases by year-end.
Corn Cv1 lost 11-1/4 cents to $4.30-1/4 a bushel and wheat Wv1 fell 10-3/4 cents to $5.41-1/2 a bushel.
— Additional reporting by Ella Cao and Lewis Jackson in Beijing and Sybille de La Hamaide in Paris.
