MarketsFarm — Ahead of the model-based Statistics Canada production report due out on Thursday, Scott Shiels of Grain Millers Canada in Yorkton, Sask. said it’s likely the agency’s numbers for oats will increase.
StatCan issued its first model-based production report for 2023-24 on Aug. 29, which placed the country’s oats at about 2.429 million tonnes. While the first report estimated the crops as of July 31, the second report will take them as of Aug. 31.
He suggested the agency’s previous estimate for harvested acres, at 828,800, is likely a little high. Also, any increase in production would still produce a crop well short of last year’s 5.227 million tonnes.
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“We know there was a very large carryout and demand has been good,” Shiels said.
StatCan last Friday (Sept. 8) issued a stocks report which placed oat ending stocks for 2022-23 at 1.275 million tonnes — far more than the 333,000 the year prior and above the five-year average of 518,000.
“They’re probably fairly accurate on stocks — I think a lot more accurate than they are on their acres at this point,” Shiels said.
Grain Millers is offering $6 per bushel for oats in the April to August time frame, he said.
Meanwhile, for current-year oats, Prairie Ag Hotwire listed them in Manitoba at $5-$5.14/bu. delivered, down 18 cents over the last month. Those in Alberta fetched $4.30-$5.01/bu., dropping 40 cents over the same time.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
