Forecast issued Jan. 7, covering Jan. 7 to 14, 2026
Highlights:
- The lows expected to dominate last week’s forecast broke down more quickly than expected resulting in a disorganized but mild weather pattern across the Prairies.
- Mild temperatures are expected to persist across the Prairies for most of the forecast period.
Overview:
Sometimes a weather system unexpectedly falls apart, and sometimes two weather systems fall apart. When that happens, the forecast can quite literally fall apart as well. This is exactly what we saw with last week’s forecast.
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The two main systems that were expected to drive our weather were a Hudson Bay low and a large Pacific low. Both weakened and broke down much quicker than anticipated. The result was a rather slack and disorganized weather pattern across the Prairies during the second half of the forecast period.
This made for a not-so-great forecast but temperatures ended up being much warmer than expected, and as we will see, these milder temperatures look to stick around for at least a little while longer.
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The a slack and disorganized weather pattern continues across much of western Canada. The upper-level flow has flattened out from west to east, helping to keep the coldest air well north of our forecast regions.
This weak flow has also struggled to push out lingering moisture and cloud cover, though with a slowly building ridge of high pressure, skies do look to gradually clear.
Over the Gulf of Alaska, the semi-permanent winter low remains in place. A weak ridge along the British Columbia coast, which is forecasted to strengthen during this period, is keeping most of the energy from that low either offshore or shunted well to our north.
This overall pattern looks to remain intact through the forecast period. This means little significant weather expected. It also means that day-to-day details will be somewhat difficult to pin down, as weak systems form, drift eastward, and then fade away, with no single system dominating the weather pattern.
Alberta
With no significant weather systems expected to impact the province during this forecast period, most regions can expect sunny to partly cloudy skies and only a very small chance of any precipitation.
A slowly building ridge of high pressure looks to bring increasingly mild temperatures to the region by the weekend. Southern areas will likely see daytime highs climb into the low teens by early next week, while central and northern regions see highs in the 4 to 7 °C range.
These above-normal temperatures look to persist right through much of next week, before the weather models suggest a return to more January-like temperatures by next weekend.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A weak area of low pressure currently over northern Manitoba is forecast to continue weakening as it slides eastward into Ontario. This will allow for clearing skies after several days of cloud and fog. Wednesday will feature mild temperatures across the region, with most locations seeing daytime highs in the -2 to -5 °C range.
Weather models then show a slight southward dip in the jet stream later in the week, which should bring more seasonable conditions. Expect daytime highs to drop to around -10 °C by Saturday.
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Over the weekend, a building ridge of high pressure over British Columbia and Alberta will begin to influence Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Expect sunny to partly cloudy skies along with a noticeable warming trend as milder air pushes eastward under the ridge.
Current model guidance suggests daytime highs rising into the 0 to +4 °C range beginning Sunday or Monday. These mild temperatures look to persist through much of the week before more seasonable conditions are expected to return by next weekend.
