More stable summer weather is expected to be favoured the northern hemisphere thanks to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions, the United States’ Climate Prediction Center said on Thursday.
Chances of ENSO neutral conditions were put at 74 per cent from June to August, and exceed 50 per cent through August-October 2025, the agency said.
Why it matters: ENSO neutral conditions lower the probability of extreme weather events and could lend itself to better crop yields.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climatic cycle affects water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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La Niña results in cooler water temperatures, increasing the chances of floods and droughts, which can impact crops. El Niño refers to warmer-than-usual water temperatures, which can provoke extreme weather phenomena from wildfires to tropical cyclones and prolonged droughts.
When ENSO is neutral, water temperatures stay around the average level, leading to more stable weather and potentially better crop yields.
“Neutral ENSO really has no usual conditions associated with it as a neutral ENSO results in other conditions influencing the local and global pattern,” AccuWeather’s lead international forecaster Jason Nicholls said.
“The pattern this spring has resulted in some dryness concerns in the UK and northern Europe while southern Europe has been wet. It looks like the pattern will change heading into summer with more rain opportunities in northern Europe which may improve crop prospects.”
— Reporting by Sarah Qureshi in Bengaluru
