ICE canola weekly outlook: Politics in the forefront

Trade war weighs on canola prices

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Published: March 5, 2025

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Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — Canola contracts on the ICE Futures platform fell sharply lower in early March, as broad import tariffs in the United States went into effect and Canada announced its own retaliatory measures.

Canola was already losing ground ahead of the implementation of 25 per cent U.S. import tariffs, and the futures fell to their weakest levels since mid-January when the persistent tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump finally came to fruition on March 4.

Charts look worrisome

The May canola contract fell below all its major moving averages in the immediate aftermath of the tariffs, and remained below the 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day averages on March 5 despite seeing a modest correction.

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“We’re in a ‘risk off’ market right now,” said MarketsFarm analyst Mike Jubinville, adding that the move below the upward trend line in canola was “worrisome” from a technical standpoint.

Fundamentals still supportive

The underlying fundamentals of tightening supplies and the need to ration demand remain relatively supportive for canola and Jubinville expected the latest weakness could be seen as a buying opportunity by some end users.

However, he cautioned that “there’s only one story at work right now, and it’s politics.”

About The Author

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Phil Franz-Warkentin

Editor - Daily News

Phil Franz-Warkentin grew up on an acreage in southern Manitoba and has reported on agriculture for over 20 years. Based in Winnipeg, his writing has appeared in publications across Canada and internationally. Phil is a trusted voice on the Prairie radio waves providing daily futures market updates. In his spare time, Phil enjoys playing music and making art.

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