Glacier FarmMedia — ICE canola futures saw some wide price swings during the week ended Nov. 5, although the market remains stuck in a sideways range overall.
A brief talk between Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea created some optimism over thawing trade relations between the countries. However, the tariffs on both sides remain in place for the time being, with Canada effectively shut out of its largest customer for canola seed.
Analyst Bruce Burnett of Glacier FarmMedia placed the January canola contract in a sideways range between C$635 and C$650, and expected values would remain rangebound until something changed on the trade front.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Soybean prices rise as China-U.S. truce assessed
Chicago soybean prices rose on Wednesday, recovering some of the previous session’s losses, as Beijing’s confirmation that it was cutting tariffs on U.S. farm goods put attention back on a trade truce between the countries.
Canola futures will “continue on that path until we see an increase in exports to a third party, or China returns to the market,” said Burnett adding that he didn’t expect to see that happen any time soon.
China imported 4.7 million tonnes of Canadian canola in 2024/25, accounting for roughly half of all exports that marketing year.
Pakistan is one country that could start taking up some of the slack of the lost business to China. Pakistan and Canada released a joint statement including an agreement to facilitate Pakistani purchases of Canadian canola. The country had once been a major canola customer, importing over a million tonnes annually, but has been absent from the market for the past three years due to changes to the country’s biosecurity measures.
