Glacier Farm Media — Although there’s a debate over the size of the South American soybean crop, there’s little doubt that it will be an enormous one, said consultant Michael Cordonnier of Soybean and Corn Advisor in Hinsdale, Ill.
At 176 million tonnes, Cordonnier’s estimate of the 2025/26 Brazil soybean harvest is between those of the United States Department of Agriculture at 175 million and the 177 million from Conab, its Brazilian counterpart. Regardless of the estimate, Brazil appears to be on its way to its largest soybean crop on record.
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Cordonnier said rainfall throughout Brazil was variable, depending on the region during October and November.
“Since December, it’s gotten much more regular,” he added. “The farmers who had irregular rainfall are now much more positive and confident that the soybeans will do good.”
He noted that east-central Brazil is to be become drier than the rest of the country. He said the La Nina that could impact the weather across South America could bring above normal rainfall for central Brazil and below normal precipitation for southern Brazil.
Safrinha corn dispute
As for Brazilian corn, Cordonnier said there’s a dispute over the size of the safrinha crop, the country’s second harvest. He said that Conab was on the high end of forecasts with the safrinha corn area expanding by 3.8 per cent. Meanwhile, consultancy IMEA projected an increase of 1.3 per cent.
“I think Brazilian corn has sort of ‘yet-to-be-determined’ going forward,” Cordonnier said.
The USDA stuck with its estimate of 131 million tonnes of corn in total for Brazil for 2025/26 in its December report, down from 136 million the previous year. However, Conab swung the other way, projecting an increase to 138.3 million tonnes.
Argentina crops
For Argentina, Cordonnier said that country’s corn and soybean crops are 60 to 70 per cent planted.
“They’ve had better than expected weather and the crops are doing better than anticipated,” he said, noting that some part of Argentina have been drier than others.
More soybeans, less corn to be planted
In looking at what U.S. farmers could plant in 2026, Cordonnier predicted a shift of two million to four million acres to soybeans from corn, despite poor soybean exports to China and the massive South American crops.
“The soybean advantage over corn is that it’s cheaper to plant,” he said. “That’s going to be a big factor going forward.”
However, he said the weather will be a wildcard as estimates start to come.
