Glacier FarmMedia – Soybean and corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade fell to fresh contract lows in early July, as relatively favourable growing conditions and bearish technical signals weighed on values.
“Any uptick in prices and we’re seeing a little selling come into the market,” said Terry Reilly, senior agricultural strategist with Marex in Chicago, adding “traders remain widely bearish because of favourable weather.”
He noted that there were no major weather threats in the 10-day forecast, with any hotter temperatures being countered by beneficial rainfall.
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From a chart standpoint, he expected soybeans had room to move another 25 cents lower, which would take the November contract below US$10.50 per bushel. For corn he expected the September contract, which fell below the US$4.00 per bushel mark on July 8, could eventually hit US$3.75.
One bright spot for soybeans was the fact that China was finally in the market making purchases for 2024/25 delivery, although Reilly cautioned that competition from South America would limit any upside potential.
The United States Department of Agriculture will release its monthly supply/demand estimates on Friday, July 12, with any surprises in the data likely to provide some nearby direction. However, Reilly expected to see only small changes in the balance sheets.
Wheat futures were also grinding lower, with seasonal harvest pressure led by the Black Sea region behind much of the selling pressure. While Russian wheat prices were weakening to bring in export demand, Reilly noted that the general price weakness in wheat was also opening the door for more global tenders as end users increase their stockpiles. He pointed out that both Algeria and Egypt were in the market recently.
