Glacier FarmMedia – Canadian wheat exports in both the current crop year and the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year will likely end up above earlier expectations, according to updated supply/demand estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC), released June 20, that left the balance sheet for canola relatively unchanged.
The government agency raised its call for 2023/24 and 2024/25 Canadian wheat exports by 250,000 tonnes from earlier projections for both years to 23.700 million and 25.000 million tonnes respectively. As a result, total wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year were lowered to 2.700 million tonnes from an earlier estimate of 2.950 million. The 2024/25 wheat carryout was forecast at 3.150 million tonnes, which would be down by 600,000 tonnes from the May forecast.
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AAFC makes more adjustments to canola numbers
With exports of Canadian canola still going strong in 2024/25, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada readjusted its estimates in its June supply and demand report.
AAFC left its calls for canola exports unchanged at 6.000 million tonnes for 2023/24 and 6.900 million tonnes in 2024/25. Canola ending stocks were also steady in the June report at 2.550 million tonnes for the old crop and 2.500 million tonnes in 2024/25.
Statistics Canada releases updated acreage estimates on June 27 which will likely lead to larger adjustments in the July balance sheet from AAFC.
June estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes.
Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.
| Grains and oilseeds | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| June | May | June | May | ||||
| All wheat | 34.593 | 34.593 | 31.954 | 25.000 | 24.750 | 23.700 | |
| Durum | 5.655 | 5.655 | 4.045 | 4.500 | 4.500 | 3.300 | |
| Barley | 9.496 | 9.496 | 8.896 | 3.050 | 2.750 | 2.950 | |
| Corn | 14.929 | 14.929 | 15.076 | 1.650 | 1.650 | 1.700 | |
| Oats | 3.510 | 3.510 | 2.636 | 2.350 | 2.450 | 2.340 | |
| Canola | 18.100 | 18.100 | 18.328 | 6.900 | 6.900 | 6.000 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.260 | 0.260 | 0.273 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.225 | |
| Soybeans | 6.900 | 6.900 | 6.981 | 4.950 | 4.950 | 4.900 | |
| TOTAL | 88.254 | 88.254 | 84.654 | 44.333 | 43.883 | 42.018 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| June | May | June | May | ||||
| All wheat | 9.293 | 9.218 | 9.291 | 3.150 | 3.750 | 2.700 | |
| Durum | 0.830 | 0.880 | 0.829 | 0.700 | 0.750 | 0.350 | |
| Barley | 6.176 | 6.476 | 6.085 | 0.950 | 1.150 | 0.650 | |
| Corn | 15.279 | 15.179 | 16.103 | 2.050 | 2.150 | 1.900 | |
| Oats | 1.080 | 1.080 | 1.241 | 0.450 | 0.350 | 0.350 | |
| Canola | 11.350 | 11.350 | 11.534 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.550 | |
| Flaxseed | 0.090 | 0.090 | 0.127 | 0.080 | 0.080 | 0.150 | |
| Soybeans | 2.446 | 2.446 | 2.482 | 0.370 | 0.370 | 0.415 | |
| TOTAL | 46.003 | 46.128 | 47.211 | 9.610 | 10.410 | 8.781 | |
| Pulse and Special Crops | |||||||
| Production | Exports | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| June | May | June | May | ||||
| Dry peas | 3.000 | 3.000 | 2.609 | 2.500 | 2.500 | 2.500 | |
| Lentils | 2.130 | 2.130 | 1.671 | 1.800 | 1.800 | 1.600 | |
| Dry beans | 0.355 | 0.355 | 0.339 | 0.335 | 0.335 | 0.400 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.225 | 0.225 | 0.142 | 0.150 | 0.150 | 0.200 | |
| Mustard | 0.180 | 0.180 | 0.171 | 0.110 | 0.110 | 0.100 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.155 | 0.155 | 0.112 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 0.120 | |
| Sunflower | 0.073 | 0.073 | 0.092 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.022 | |
| TOTAL | 6.118 | 6.118 | 5.137 | 5.065 | 5.065 | 4.942 | |
| Domestic Usage | Ending Stocks | ||||||
| 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | 2024/25 | 2023/24 | ||
| June | May | June | May | ||||
| Dry peas | 0.515 | 0.515 | 0.481 | 0.240 | 0.240 | 0.225 | |
| Lentils | 0.265 | 0.265 | 0.263 | 0.190 | 0.190 | 0.050 | |
| Dry beans | 0.075 | 0.075 | 0.074 | 0.040 | 0.050 | 0.020 | |
| Chickpeas | 0.076 | 0.076 | 0.042 | 0.045 | 0.045 | 0.001 | |
| Mustard | 0.044 | 0.042 | 0.045 | 0.115 | 0.115 | 0.080 | |
| Canaryseed | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.045 | 0.040 | 0.035 | |
| Sunflower | 0.068 | 0.068 | 0.071 | 0.185 | 0.185 | 0.180 | |
| TOTAL | 1..053 | 1.051 | 0.991 | 0.860 | 0.865 | 0.591 | |
