David Drozd

Reading Time: 3 minutes Jan. 7 — The U.S. dollar index shows signs of bottoming and it’s only a matter of time before it strengthens further. Prices could occasionally have a correction back down to alleviate overbought conditions, but I wouldn’t expect the weakness to last. A two-week reversal, occurring at the recent low in early December, was one […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes Dec. 10 — The Canadian dollar was supposed to go par. At least this was the hype when the market peaked at US97.98 cents on Oct. 15. When a commodity makes the headlines of major newspapers and magazines, it is often a tell-tale sign that it is near the end of the rally. When most […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Although delayed, the advancing U.S. soybean harvest is expected to weigh on prices. Two-week reversal The […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes There is a seasonal tendency for grain prices to come under pressure during harvest, as increased deliveries weigh on futures prices and basis levels deteriorate as merchants are offered more grain for sale than they require at that time. Stored grain is generally in tighter hands once harvest winds down and often requires an incentive […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes Prices over a period of time are typically confined to a trading range. Prices are content to move up and down within this range until there is a shift in equilibrium, at which time the trend will turn decisively in the direction of the breakout from the range. Trendlines During the course of a trend […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes Although technical analysts, such as myself, rely primarily on our analysis of the charts for determining price reversals and in forecasting price direction, we do keep one eye open to the fundamental information as well. I’ll have to admit, though, that whenever technical and fundamental analysis are at odds, and they are more times than […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes When one studies many weekly bar charts, it becomes evident that prices over a period of several months are typically moving up or down. This direction is the long term or major trend of the market. Within the major trend are a series of fluctuating price movements that can be of several weeks’ duration. The […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes As I have mentioned before in this column, the Japanese are true pioneers of technical analysis of the markets. Their techniques have evolved from fairly simple beginnings, trading forward rice contracts (futures) in the 17th century, to now include many sophisticated ways to analyze the markets, including the amazingly powerful modern-day charting method called the […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes V bottoms take two forms: the more classic or true V, and the extended V. In the former formation, three essential components must be present: Prices must be in a downtrend and a futures contract is more apt to be in a free fall, or near vertical decline. A pivot point is reached which will […] Read more

Reading Time: 3 minutes Rectangles, or box formations as they are sometimes called, are frequently found on futures price charts. Sometimes they prove to be a continuation or sideways consolidation pattern following an obvious trend, indicating that the market is simply taking a breather before continuing its advance or decline. At other times box or rectangle formations can evolve […] Read more