Glacier FarmMedia — Corn ending stocks in the United States for 2025/26 will be slightly tighter than earlier expectations, but still record-large, according to updated supply/demand tables from the U.S. Department of Agriculture released Feb. 10. The U.S. soybean balance sheet was left unchanged on the month, while Brazilian production of the crop was revised higher.
Why it matters: The USDA data influences global agricultural futures markets, which spills into Canadian cash prices.
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Corn
• Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 were lowered to 2.127 billion bushels from 2.227 billion bushels in January. That below average trade estimates calling for an unchanged reading on the month but well above the 1.551-billion-bushel corn carryout from 2024/25.
• Anticipated U.S. corn exports were raised to a record 3.3 billion bushels from 3.2 billion bushels the previous month.
• The global corn carryout for 2025/26 was estimated at 288.98 million tonnes, which was down from 290.91 million in January and below average trade guesses.
Soybeans
• U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were left unchanged at 350 million bushels, which was in line with trade estimates.
• U.S. soybean exports were left unchanged, with the accompanying commentary noting that “China is reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans.”
• Projected world soybean ending stocks for 2025/26 were up by 1.1 million tonnes from January, at 125.51 million tonnes.
Wheat
• The anticipated U.S. all-wheat carryout for the current marketing year was raised by five million bushels from January at 931 million bushels. That compares with 855 million in 2024/25. • World wheat ending stocks saw a small adjustment, moving to 277.51 million tonnes from 278.25 in January.
South America
• Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production was up by two million tonnes from January, at 180.0 million tonnes. That compares with 171.5 million tonnes in 2024/25.
• Brazilian corn production for the year was left unchanged at 131.0 million tonnes.
• Soybean and corn production in Argentina were steady at 48.5 million and 53.0 million tonnes respectively.
