Glacier FarmMedia — At least one trader is waiting and watching Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China before making any determinations of where canola prices will go for the rest of January.
Last year, China imposed 100 per cent tariffs on Canadian canola oil and meal in retaliation to Canada’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. A 75.8 per cent tariff on canola seed was also imposed. As a result, overall Canadian canola exports are down in 2025-26 compared to last year while Canada recently harvested a record-large canola crop.
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Jamie Wilton, trader for RJ O’Brien in Winnipeg, said Carney’s visit with Chinese President Xi Jinping will have an effect on prices, depending on how discussions go. But he added that the hype leading up to the visit helped fuel canola’s rally earlier this month.
“We (also) had a massive fund short coming into this time period. Funds are short-covering and are hoping they are getting some export increase from China this year,” Wilton said.
Anti-government protests in Iran, threats of intervention in Iran by the United States, and drone attacks on a Russian terminal raised crude oil prices over the past week, which, in turn, supported soyoil and canola.
“Bean oil has a big fund short too. I think that they’ve combined to keep soyoil and canola rallying,” Wilton said.
Despite the South American soybean harvest being in its early stages, he said the canola trade is not focusing on it. Instead, Wilton and others believe that prices will depend on China’s actions or inaction.
“We’re all waiting for China and the news from the Prime Minister’s Office,” he said.
