Glacier FarmMedia — Regardless of the United States government shutdown ending soon or not, the Department of Agriculture is set to issue its supply and demand report on Nov. 14.
The USDA cancelled its October edition of World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates due to the shutdown and pushed back their November report a few days.
Ryan Ettner, broker with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill., said this coming report should be “accurate enough” given the circumstances that includes several weeks of no export sales reports.
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Declines in projected planting intentions for 2026/27 were not as big as the market expected, after the United States Department of Agriculture released its estimates on March 31. The USDA also issued its quarterly grain stocks report with stocks for soybeans bigger than anticipated, while those for corn were smaller and wheat virtually matched the average trade guess.
Ettner said U.S. corn export sales for 2025/26 were doing very well at the time of the shutdown, while those for soybeans were slow. The latter is largely due to China not buying U.S. soybeans because of their trade war.
More recently, the Trump administration said China agreed to purchase about 12 million tonnes of soybeans by the end of December and then acquire 25 million tonnes of soybeans per year for the next three years. However, an agreement has yet to be signed.
With that, soybeans have remained largely rangebound Ettner said.
“Nobody is going to get crazy about that until they actually see (the agreement),” he said, adding the soybean market will move one way or another depending on actual export sales.
Corn low, soybeans neutral
As for the November WASDE, Ettner believes pre-report predictions are low for corn ending stocks and fairly accurate for soybeans.
A Reuters survey found the trade is expecting a 26-million bushel increase in the carryover for corn at nearly 2.14 billion.
Also, the survey trimmed corn yields by 2.7 bushels per acre at 184, which would drop the harvest by 257 million bushels at about 16.56 billion.
For soybeans, the trade tacked on four million bushels on soybean ending stocks at 304 million. Yields are to dip 0.4 bu./ac. at 53.1, with production to step back 35 million bushels at around 4.27 billion.
The carryover for U.S. wheat is to increase 23 million bushels at 867 million.
Ettner said the November WASDE has been known to have some major changes at times, but the report to watch will be the January edition. The December report is most often the least important, he said.
The USDA is scheduled to issue its S/D report on Nov. 14 at 11 am CST.
