Glacier FarmMedia | MarketsFarm — The July canola contract on the Intercontinental Exchange made gains as April came to an end, but not before hitting some resistance.
July canola surpassed the C$700 per tonne mark on April 25 and then hit a 16-month high. It settled down to close at C$692.40/tonne on April 30. Nevertheless, it was still good enough for a weekly gain of C$10.10.
David Derwin, a Winnipeg-based commodity futures advisor for Ventum Financial Corp., said canola prices surged by C$120/tonne since mid-March and the oilseed is reaching the higher end of its long-term trading range.
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“It had a fairly strong run in a short period of time. So, a bit of give back is not out of the question,” said David Derwin, a commodity futures advisor with Ventum Financial in Winnipeg, adding that Chicago soyoil has also seen similar price moment.
“(Canola) had to take a break and that’s what we’ve been seeing these past (few days) or so,” Derwin said.
However, there is a sense among analysts that the oilseed is still undervalued. Weather concerns in late spring and early summer can boost canola prices, according to Derwin. Also, considering its abnormally high export pace and an ongoing depletion of stocks, the oilseed seems primed for price rationing.
“C$700/tonne is a lot different than C$600/tonne,” he said. “Just by pure economics, there would be less demand at C$700 than at C$600.”
Derwin believes there is some room for July canola to come down over the next couple of weeks.
“We have seen such a big move higher, it wouldn’t be out of the question for (July) canola … to drop off C$20, C$30, C$40 and it would still be at high levels,” he said. “It’s the seasonal time of year where you do have all the grains: corn, soybeans and wheat, influenced by planting and what the weather’s like around these next couple of months.
“Short term, (canola) could pull back and then it will be a weather-driven story. It would be the biggest factor after that.”
