MarketsFarm — The European Union will likely import more canola (rapeseed) this year than earlier thought, but any increased movement should come from Australia or Ukraine rather than Canada, according to updated projections from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
USDA raised its forecast for European rapeseed imports during the 2022-23 marketing year by 550,000 tonnes, to 6.525 million tonnes, in its latest Oilseeds report released Wednesday, citing “increased exports from Ukraine and Australia.”
The agency raised its forecast for Australian exports to 6.25 million tonnes, from 5.7 million in the February report, while increasing the Ukraine export forecast by 300,000 tonnes, to 2.1 million.
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Canadian canola production for 2022-23 was left unchanged at 19 million tonnes by USDA, which compares with Statistics Canada’s estimate of 18.174 million tonnes.
USDA forecasts Canadian canola exports during the marketing year at 8.4 million tonnes, which would be down slightly from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s projection of 8.6 million.
Meanwhile, USDA is working with a domestic usage number for Canadian canola of 10.45 million tonnes, which would be nearly a million tonnes above AAFC’s 9.5 million-tonne estimate.
Total Canadian canola ending stocks for 2022-23 are forecast at 1.15 million tonnes by USDA, which compares with the AAFC estimate of 800,000 tonnes. World canola carryout was estimated at 6.672 million tonnes by the U.S. agency, which would be up from the February estimate of 6.163 million tonnes and the year-ago level of 4.211 million tonnes.
— Phil Franz-Warkentin is an associate editor and analyst for MarketsFarm in Winnipeg.
