MarketsFarm — While Statistics Canada (StatCan) cut its projection for canola production in 2022-23 by 400,000 tonnes, FarmLink Marketing Solutions senior analyst Neil Townsend said the number could go lower.
StatCan on Wednesday issued its latest production estimates and lowered its call on canola from the 19.5 million tonnes forecast in its Aug. 29 report to 19.1 million. Despite the reduction, this year’s crop will be far better than last year’s 13.8 million tonnes due to greatly improved growing conditions.
“I’m a little bit of an agnostic. I did think there was the potential to go lower. The anecdotal reports from the countryside have been pretty consistent with canola — being the one the farmers are a little disappointed in,” Townsend said.
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However, he acknowledged StatCan’s latest number is in line with what the markets had expected. He suggested the amount could go lower come the federal agency’s next production report in December.
“I’ve heard enough from the countryside that yields aren’t going to improve from here on out,” he said.
Production very likely won’t fall below 18 million tonnes and not exceed 20 million, he said, and predicted a harvest of 18.8 million to 19.4 million tonnes is likely.
As for wheat, Townsend agreed with StatCan upping its projection for all wheat from 34.6 million tonnes on Aug. 29 to 34.7 million on Wednesday. Last year, Canadian farmers reaped 22.3 million tonnes.
“Wheat crops that are big tend to get bigger,” he quipped, noting wheat yields on the Prairies have been pretty so far this harvest.
However, Townsend said he has an issue with StatCan’s forecast for durum. The federal agency lowered its call from 6.5 million tonnes a few weeks ago to now 6.1 million. He placed durum at around 5.8 million tonnes.
StatCan probably high-balled its number, Townsend said, while Saskatchewan Agriculture has low-balled its estimate for durum yields in that province.
— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm from Winnipeg.
Table: A quick summary of Statistics Canada’s August model-based principal field crop production estimates for 2022-23, in millions of metric tonnes, released Sept. 14, 2022. Production numbers from 2021 and average pre-report trade estimates are included for comparison.
| Pre-report. . | StatCan, | StatCan, | |
| estimates | Aug. 2022. . | 2021 final | |
| All wheat | 34.5 | 34.703 | 22.296 |
| Durum | 6.2 | 6.117 | 3.038 |
| Oats | 4.5 | 4.654 | 2.808 |
| Barley | 9.6 | 9.428 | 6.959 |
| Corn (grain). . | 14.6 | 14.861 | 13.984 |
| Canola | 19.9 | 19.099 | 13.757 |
| Soybeans | 6.4 | 6.505 | 6.272 |
| Peas | 3.5 | 3.586 | 2.258 |
| Lentils | 2.7 | 2.777 | 1.606 |
| Flaxseed | 0.47 | 0.465 | 0.346 |
— Pre-report estimates compiled from 12 traders and analysts by Rod Nickel of Reuters on Sept. 12. “All wheat” includes spring, winter and durum wheats.
