There won’t be any more recessions.
I remember being told this by a good friend who has done all sorts of impressive things with Deloitte and who has all sorts of letters after his name. It was around the turn of the millennium, and his point was that economists had finally learned enough about the economy that they would nip any future recessions in the bud, and we should plan for a much more stable Dow Jones.
Of course it didn’t quite work out that way. Human nature got in the way.
Read Also
Editor’s Note: No pressure
What is your playbook going into this year’s crop? Not an easy question to answer right now, given the global…
I also remember when the Berlin Wall came down and historian Francis Fukuyama wrote The End of History. He argued the 20th century had been dominated by a contest between fascism, communism and democracy, and now that democracy had won, we were about to enter a period of unparalleled peace.
Nor did that work out quite as planned. Again, humans with their religions, cultures and economics keep getting in the way.
Now we’re being told that Canadian agriculture is entering a long period of stability.
I don’t believe it this time either.
The arguments do sound convincing. After all, there simply isn’t that much land coming up for sale in most parts of the country. You couldn’t expand at breakneck speed even if you could afford to.
That, I’m told, means that farms will need to stay at their current sizes, and it also means that the summer of 2012 will be a good year to enjoy the fruits of your labours without worrying about the future.
Instead, it’s my bet that many of tomorrow’s most successful farms will look back on the summer of 2012 as the start of the good things that have happened to them. Others — less fortunate — will look back and see the year the end came in sight.
More land will soon be available. The numbers vary, but the conservative estimates I hear say that a third of Canada’s commercial farms do not have a successor in the next generation. Yes, I know times are good and these farmers want to hold on, but with today’s market and weather volatility, that will change.
Technology will drive change too. We need to keep reminding ourselves that the GPS systems we have today will soon seem like Commodore 64s.
As well, competitiveness will inevitably return as a hanging judge in Canadian agriculture, at least sporadically. Markets won’t always be so buoyant.
The topics that our writers tackle in this issue were chosen with a view to helping you define and target the challenges that will determine farm success. They’re ideas that start and end with the assumption that as agriculture gets bigger and more complex, it actually becomes more of a people and less of a tractor business, ironic though that may sound.
I hope the interviews and the insight in this issue give you something to think about and act on this summer. Are we getting it right? Let us know. You can reach me at 519-674-1449, or email me at [email protected].
