North American Grain and Oilseed Review: Sharp soyoil losses pulls down canola

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Jan. 23 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished weaker on Thursday, getting caught in declines in Chicago soyoil.

However, a trader pointed out that isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Canola often lags behind changes to soyoil and in this case that’s good. The trader also noted soyoil has bounced around a great deal as of late.

A weaker Canadian dollar was supportive as well, although the effects aren’t immediately felt in canola prices. By mid-afternoon Thursday, the Canadian dollar was down by almost a tenth of a cent at 76.15 U.S. cents.

There were 19,028 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 13,014 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,254 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Mar 473.10 dn 4.80
May 482.00 dn 4.80
Jul 487.10 dn 4.30
Nov 491.60 dn 3.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Thursday due to a lack of major new sales to China following the signing of the Phase One trade deal with the United States.

The coronavirus has begun causing consternation in the commodities markets. The coronavirus has generated an illness that is similar to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and has killed 17 people in China so far with more than 500 reported cases. Ahead of the celebrations for the Lunar New Year, Chinese officials have sealed off the major cities of Wuhan and Huanggang. Cases of the coronavirus have also been reported in Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and the U.S. The most effective way for a person to not spread the illness to others is to wear a surgical mask over their mouth.

Reports stated that China purchased 11.38 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans so far in 2019/20, with 1.52 million tonnes left to ship. That’s an improvement over the 2.99 million tonnes remaining this time last year, and the 4.54 million tonnes the year before that.

With the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday this week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has delayed its weekly export sales report to Friday. Market expectations are for soybeans to come in at 700,000 to 1.3 million tonnes.

Early indications have suggested Brazil’s soybean yields could be higher than expected. The country’s soybean harvest recently got underway.

CORN futures were higher on Thursday due to private sales.

The USDA announced a private sale of almost 144,250 tonnes of corn to Guatemala. About 80 per cent is to be delivered this marketing year and the remainder during 2020/21. Also there was a private sale of 141,000 tonnes to unknown destinations, with delivery in the current marketing year.

Market expectations for U.S. corn export sales have called for 500,000 to 950,000 tonnes.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that ethanol production was down 46,000 barrels per day (BPD) to almost 1.05 million BPD for the week ending Jan. 17. Stocks increased to nearly 1.03 million barrels to 24.03 million.

There have been reports of quality problems with the U.S. corn crop. Asian buyers have turned to Ukraine to purchase corn.

Varied rainfall is expected in Argentina, with its Cordoba state forecast to receive a little more than a quarter of its normal precipitation. But other states are forecast to receive normal levels.

Brazil’s state of Mato Grosso has received about half its normal rainfall, just as corn planting is about to get underway.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Thursday, with small gains in Chicago as Kansas City and Minneapolis traded on either side of steady.

Trade predictions for U.S. wheat export sales were from 300,000 to 700,000 tonnes.

Egypt announced it will consider India as a source to buy wheat. Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat.

Futures Prices as of January 23, 2020

Canola
Price Change
Milling Wheat
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
Durum
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change
New Barley
1970-01-01 00:00
Price Change

Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric ton

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