New York / Reuters – The U.S. weather forecaster on Thursday projected a 58 percent chance of El Nino developing during the Northern Hemisphere winter, reducing its outlook for the likelihood of the weather phenomenon in its monthly report.
The Climate Prediction Center, an agency of the National Weather Service, said the most recent atmosphere and ocean conditions had “reduced confidence that El Nino will fully materialize.”
Last month, the CPC said the phenomenon, a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, was favoured to begin in the next one or two months.
El Nino, if it does materialize, is favoured to last into the Northern Hemisphere spring, according to the agency.
“If El Nino does emerge, the forecaster consensus favors a weak event,” the CPC said in its report.
Global weather forecasters earlier this year increased the likelihood of El Nino, heightening uncertainty in global commodity and energy markets.
For the full report, click http://1.usa.gov/1l5XUb3
Reporting by Chris Prentice