CBOT weekly outlook: Trade woes keep soybeans pointed lower

CNS Canada – Soybeans saw a modest corrective bounce to end the month on Oct. 31, but the general downtrend remains intact, with more losses likely, according to an analyst.

“I remain bearish on soybeans over the short-term as the window is closing for the U.S. to provide China soybeans before South America comes online,” said Terry Reilly of Futures International in Chicago. He placed support in the January contract at US$8.26 per bushel, which represents the contract low set in September.

For corn, Reilly had a neutral to bearish outlook, with any weakness in soybeans likely weighing on the grain as well.

Related Articles

Reilly placed support in the March contract at US$3.60 to US$3.65 per bushel, with additional support at the contract lows near US$3.55 per bushel “if U.S. exports slow down.”

All three wheat markets in the United States have also found themselves under pressure recently, but prices are low enough levels that more export demand should be coming forward.

“The crop prospects continue to rise out of the Black Sea, and they have a couple of more months of strong (wheat) exports to go,” said Reilly. However, “any hint of Russia limiting their exports will obviously be friendly.”

“U.S. wheat has gotten a little more competitive against Russian wheat,” said Reilly, although he said U.S. prices would need to decline another US$5 to $10 per tonne to pick up more market share.

About the author

Phil Franz-Warkentin - MarketsFarm's recent articles