CBOT weekly outlook: Headlines, geopolitics drive prices

MarketsFarm — To Terry Reilly, about the only things driving the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are headlines and geopolitics developments.

“Traders are trading headlines,” Reilly, an analyst for Futures International in Chicago, said in reference to the latest developments in U.S.-China trade talks.

Reports on Wednesday morning said the two countries were close to signing phase one, a partial trade deal that has languished unsigned since it was tentatively agreed to in October. Phase one was to have been signed last month at the since-cancelled Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation summit in Chile.

Only on Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated a trade deal with China would very likely not be signed until after his country’s elections in November 2020.

As for wheat, the analyst said Minneapolis bids have remained fairly strong due to a possible durum shortage in Europe, as well as uncertainty surrounding the size of durum crops in Canada and North Dakota.

Statistics Canada issues its next crop production report on Friday and Futures International predicted Canadian durum to come in at 4.956 million tonnes. That would be down slightly from the federal agency’s September projection of 4.998 million.

Also, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) comes out with its next supply and demand report on Tuesday next week.

With USDA’s weekly export sales report to be released on Thursday, Reilly expects it to be uneventful. In particular, he said U.S. wheat will continue its struggle to find more international buyers.

Overall, Reilly expects CBOT to remain quiet, with prices “to wobble back and forth on headline news and geopolitical events.”

— Glen Hallick reports for MarketsFarm, a Glacier FarmMedia division specializing in grain and commodity market analysis and reporting.