In its way, this may be the biggest surprise of 2023. It’s that there are so few voices out there promising to tell us exactly what the future of agriculture is going to look like and exactly who the winners and the losers will be now that land prices and net worths are so high.
Agriculture rarely lacks for bombast but all the booming voices seem to be waiting for clear signals about the impending changes before they speak.
Perhaps that is wise. Here we are in the midst of what will surely prove one of the most transformative moments in Canadian farm history and we have so little idea how it will all turn out.
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And, as to winners and losers, we haven’t even sorted out whether such categories still apply.
Don’t get me wrong. I’m not predicting mayhem but as you read our November 2023 issue of Country Guide you’ll see you aren’t alone in being stuck on the real questions ahead.
Will our mid-sized farms get squeezed out? Or is “squeezing” an outmoded way to look at it? Will it simply seem that Grandma and Grandpa fought the good fight, and now it’s time to leave with heads held high and a multi-generational bulge in the wallet?
Or, due to healthy land and commodity prices, will the pressure on mid-sized farms lighten up so much that a tight supply of land for sale effectively locks today’s farms in place?
In the wake of the 2008 bull market for grains and oilseeds, more than a few growth-oriented farms could be heard quietly saying that a couple years of bad markets wouldn’t be a bad thing if they helped convince at least some farms that the good times couldn’t last forever. I haven’t been hearing those voices this year although it’s hard to believe no one wants more land trading hands.
What do I think? As usual, I think the big decisions in agriculture are the decisions that individual farms make on their own, one decision at a time.
I also think this will be among the most important decision-making winters Canada’s farms have ever seen.
It’s why I hope you will find the stories we bring you in your Country Guides and the insights that farmers share with us as illuminating as I do.
Across the country this winter there will be farmers quietly — and in some cases not so quietly — preparing to take on the challenges and opportunities ahead of them. They see no reason why growth isn’t possible, even if that growth won’t look like it used to because now it won’t be focused on more acres as much as on diversification, vertical integration, creating ventures for the next generation or forming new partnerships, etc.
On other farms, the talk will be more about a safer path to a future that is both prosperous and sustainable, even if that leads to missed opportunities.
The point is this. Even short-term decisions this winter will have long-term consequences.
And as those decisions are being made, the bulk of Canadians will have no idea big the decisions are, or how lucky they are that the people making them are so dedicated and competent.
Are we getting it right? Reach me at [email protected].
