North American Grains and Oilseeds Review: Canola rallies with soy

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Published: December 28, 2018

By Ashley Robinson, Commodity News Service Canada
Winnipeg, Dec. 28 (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures canola contacts were stronger at market close, having rallied throughout the day.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean, oil and meal contracts all finished the day sharply higher. The soy complex strength has been supportive for canola.
The weekly United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) export sales and Commitment of Traders’ reports were not released today due to the partial government shutdown. The lack of new market news has been supportive for the soybean market, with many traders thinking there has been some good soybean export business as of late.

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Trade volume was thin throughout the day, as lack of market news and end of year had traders being cautious. Trade was volatile throughout the day, with spreading a feature as traders moved their positions out of the soon to expire January contract.
The Canadian dollar bounced around in value today, dipping lower at points and then swinging higher to virtually unchanged. The weaker bias was supportive for canola.
About 14,446 canola contracts traded, which compares with Thursday when 22,246 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 10,120 of the contracts traded.
News continues to filter out of Brazil that farmers are concerned about how the recent dry weather could reduce soybean yields. However, in Argentina there is concern that rain there could affect the soybean crop.
The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Argentina (BAGE) has pegged Argentine soybean planting at 83 per cent complete, which is ahead of last year but slightly behind the five-year average. The crop’s condition improved this week to 31 per cent good to excellent, 53 per cent fair and 16 per cent poor to very poor.
CBOT corn prices finished the day in the green.
BAGE has put Argentine corn planting at 73 per cent done, which is ahead of the five-year average. Crop ratings are at 54 per cent good to excellent, 39 per cent fair and 7 per cent poor to very poor.
Ukraine has exported 23.1 million tonnes of grain for this marketing year, including 9 million tonnes of corn, which is up from the previous year.
Wheat futures in the U.S. finished the day mixed.
Ukraine’s winter wheat acreage is expected to hit 15.9 million acres for the 2018/19 crop year, which is 2.8 per cent higher than last year. Winter barley acres are up by 22.6 per cent, while winter rye acres are down by 22.7 per cent.
To improve price stability, Morocco is planning to temporarily halt its customs duties of 30 per cent on soft wheat until the end of April.

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