North American Grain/Oilseed Review: Canola Down With Follow-Through Selling

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Published: February 26, 2016

By Phil Franz-Warkentin and Jade Markus, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, Feb. 26 (CNS Canada) – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts settled with small losses on Friday, but were well off the lows for the day as the market managed to see some consolidation to end the week.

Speculators adding to their short positions were a feature throughout the day, as the technical bias remained pointed lower following Thursday’s sharp declines.

Losses in CBOT soybeans and a firmer tone for the Canadian dollar contributed to the generally bearish tone, according to participants.

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However, scale-down end user bargain hunting helped limit the losses. Advances in CBOT soyoil and oversold price sentiment also provided some support.

About 16,514 canola contracts were traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 43,012 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 8,436 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, durum, and barley futures were all untraded, although some prices were revised after the close.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed one to four cents per bushel weaker on Friday, pressured by a stronger US dollar.

Soybean output is expected to decline this year, according to a new report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which limited losses on Friday.

The USDA expects soybean output will be 3.81 billion bushels in 2016, which is down three per cent from the record highs seen last year.

The USDA also expects smaller domestic soybean reserves in the 2016/17 crop year, which had supported prices earlier in the day.

However, competition from South America pressured soybeans, as US commodities are less competitive globally.

SOYOIL prices settled stronger on Friday, following gains in crude oil futures.

SOYMEAL closed weaker on Friday following nearby grain and oilseed markets.

CORN futures one to two cents per bushel lower on Friday, pressured by USDA data and a stronger dollar.

The USDA expects corn inventories to reach 1.977 billion bushels in 2016-17, a 12-year high.

Heavy stockpiles reflect high production and export competition from South America, which is bearish.

WHEAT closed two to four cents per bushel lower on Friday, pressured by USDA data.

The USDA expects wheat stocks at the end of the 2016/17 season to hit 989 million bushels from 966 million this crop year, which is a 29-year high.

– Egypt bought 3000,000 tonnes of wheat, analysts say.

– Government-set wheat prices in Japan are set to drop to the lowest level since 2012, analysts say.

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