By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Aug. 7 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were higher on Wednesday, but remained range-bound with little to influence bids very far either way.
The Canadian dollar was down mid-afternoon Wednesday at 75.11 U.S. cents, which provided support for bids.
As did the Chicago soy complex, and in particular soyoil, which gained almost a half cent on the day.
An analyst said the Prairie canola harvest has been underway for a short time with swathing and combining.
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The Canola Council of Canada reported today that very little has changed regarding canola exports to China. Richardson International and Viterra remain prohibited from doing business in China. However, there have been small amounts of canola seed making its way into the country. Canola meal and oil exports have continued, but continue to be closely monitored by Chinese officials.
There were 13,347 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 10,469 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,930 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
Price Change
Canola Nov 449.40 up 1.40
Jan 457.80 up 1.40
Mar 464.30 up 0.90
May 470.70 up 0.90
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were slightly stronger on Wednesday, with bids up one cent per bushel at the end of the session.
Following China’s announcement that it will halt purchasing United States farm goods, President Donald Trump alluded to another Market Facilitation Program for 2020. This year, the Trump administration said it will provide approximately US$16 billion in financial aid to U.S. farmers.
Chinese President Xi Jinping stated China will not budge in the country’s trade war with the U.S, until the latter’s economy has been hurt enough to prompt Trump to give in to China’s demands.
Ahead of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) supply and demand report, out August 12, a Reuters survey found trade expectations have called for 78.0 million to 83.50 million acres of soybeans for the 2019/20 crop year. Acres to be harvested were at 77.30 million to 82.80 million. Yield predictions called for 46.0 to 49.0 bushels per acre (BPA) for production between 98.87 million to 108.16 million tonnes.
The average estimate for the 2018/19 carryout was close to 29.0 million tonnes, with the average prediction for the 2019/20 carryout at approximately 22.35 million.
Prior to the USDA’s weekly export sales report, trade expectations of sales were from zero to 300,000 tonnes of old crop soybeans, and 100,000 to 600,000 tonnes of new crop soybeans.
A group of analysts predicted Brazil’s 2019/20 soybean crop to be almost 122.80 million tonnes, for an increase of 6.8 per cent. Also, there would be a 2.3 per cent increase of soybean acres at nearly 90.70 million.
CORN futures were higher on Wednesday, due to the weekly Energy Information Administration (EIA) report.
The week ended August 2, U.S. ethanol production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day (BPD). That was up 9,000 BPD from last week, but still behind last year’s pace. Also, ethanol stocks have reached 23.12 million barrels.
In the Reuters survey, trade expectations for U.S planted corn acres were from 83.49 million to 89.90 million, with 76.11 million to 81.90 million to be harvested. Yields were forecast between 161.0 to 167.2 BPA for production ranging from 323.18 million to 344.26 million tonnes.
The average estimate for 2018/19 carryout was for 60.80 million tonnes, while the 2019/20 carryout was at 41.15 million tonnes.
Market predictions ahead of Thursday’s export sales report from the USDA called for sales of 100,000 to 300,000 tonnes of old crop corn and 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes of new crop corn.
The French agriculture ministry reported the country’s corn production estimate remains at 13.107 million tonnes. That would be five per cent more than France’s 2018 crop.
WHEAT futures were mixed on Wednesday, with small losses in Minneapolis, steady in Kansas City and stronger in Chicago.
Trade predictions for the 2019/20 carryout averaged at 27.19 million tonnes. The USDA reported in July the 2018/19 carryout was about 29.18 million tonnes.
The market predictions for export sales were 250,000 to 500,000 tonnes.
Japan purchased about 115,000 tonnes of wheat with approximately 11,000 tonnes of U.S. white, 16,000 of U.S. hard red, 28,000 of U.S. spring, 35,000 of Canadian spring, and 25,000 of Australian white. Shipments were scheduled for October.
