By Phil Franz-Warkentin, MarketsFarm
Winnipeg, Aug. 29 (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market settled with small losses on Thursday, after trading to both sides of unchanged in choppy activity.
With little fresh news in the market, participants were content to keep prices steady until they get a better handle on the size of this year’s crop, according to a trader.
Statistics Canada estimated canola production this year at 18.5 million tonnes in a report out Aug. 28. While that would be about two million tonnes down from the previous year, most market participants expect actual production will still end up at least above 19 million tonnes due to improved conditions over the past month.
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Gains in Chicago Board of Trade soybeans provided some underlying support for canola. Meanwhile, steady deliveries into the commercial pipeline tempered the upside as the Canadian harvest gets underway.
About 7,341 canola contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 14,021 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 2,874 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade found strength on the back of renewed optimism on the Chinese trade front on Thursday, posting small gains.
Concerns over cool and wet Midwestern weather forecasts were also supportive, with the slow development of this year’s crop raising the possibility of frost damage before the harvest.
However, poor weekly export sales reported by the United States Department of Agriculture tempered the upside.
The International Grains Council released updated world supply/demand estimates lowering their soybean carryout forecast by three million tonnes, to 41 million tonnes.
CORN was narrowly mixed at the close with a bias to the upside in the most active months. While weekly USDA export sales data showed a small net reduction in old crop business there is only a week left in the 2018/19 marketing year, and large new crop sales of about 860,000 tonnes were supportive.
The International Grains Council raised its world corn ending stocks estimate by 11 million tonnes, to 284 million.
WHEAT futures were mostly lower on Wednesday, with a move to fresh contract lows in the French wheat market behind some of the spillover selling pressure.
Weekly US wheat export sales of about 662,000 tonnes were at the higher end of trade estimates and the largest for the marketing year to date. South Korea and Mexico were both major buyers.
The International Grains Council raised its estimate for world wheat ending stocks to 271 million tonnes, up by a million tonnes from an earlier forecast.
