North American Grain and Oilseed Review: USDA reports lead to sharp jump in canola

Grain stocks, wheat production down

Reading Time: 2 minutes

Published: September 30, 2020

By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Sept. 30 (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Wednesday following large gains on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its grain stocks and small grains reports today, with both showing significant declines in the major grains. In turn, that generated skyrocketing prices at CBOT.

There was support from increases in European rapeseed, while lower Malaysian palm oil weighed on values.

Manitoba Agriculture reported yesterday that the province’s canola harvest was at 85 per cent complete, good quality and average yields.

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At mid-afternoon, the Canadian dollar was stronger at 75.10 U.S. cents, compared to Tuesday’s close of 74.68.

There were 49,726 contracts traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when 35,148 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 36,396 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 520.40 up 8.40
Jan 528.10 up 8.80
Mar 535.20 up 9.10
May 538.50 up 7.90

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were significantly stronger on Wednesday, following the release of two reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

In the grain stocks report, the USDA said old crop soybean stocks were at 523 million bushels as of Sept. 1. That made for a 42 per cent drop compared to September 2019 and was below the market prediction of 578 million tonnes.

The USDA announced a private sale of 215,000 tonnes of soybeans to unknown destinations. Delivery is to be during the current marketing year.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection issued a “withhold release order” that effectively bans palm oil products made by Malaysia-based FGV Holdings to the U.S. The move follows allegations of forced labour and other human rights abuses in the Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil industries.

CORN futures were stronger on Wednesday, due to the USDA reports.

Old crop corn stocks registered 1.995 billion bushels, falling 10 per cent from this time last year. Trade expectations had been for stocks of about 2.266 billion bushels.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported average U.S. ethanol production for the week ended Sept. 25 was 881,000 barrels, down 2.75 per cent from the previous week. Stocks were at 19.691 million barrels, down 306,000.

South Africa reduced its estimate of the country’s 2020 corn production by 0.7 per cent to 15.42 million tonnes due to wet conditions that delayed the harvest. South Africa ranks tenth in the world for corn production.

WHEAT futures were higher on Wednesday with double-digit gains.

The grain stocks report put all-wheat stocks at just short of 2.159 billion bushels, for an eight per cent drop from last year.

The small grains report stated 2020 wheat production reached 1.826 billion bushels, for a decline of five per cent compared to 2019. Separately, spring wheat rose four per cent, while durum jumped 28.0 per cent. There was a drop of 11 per cent in winter wheat production.

Ukraine said it’s cutting the amount of winter wheat acres to plant by nine per cent to 15.07 million acres as a result of severe drought.

Russia announced its 2020 wheat crop was approximately 82 million tonnes and its total grain production reached around 125 million tonnes. That’s up from previous estimates that called for 75 million tonnes of wheat and 122.5 million tonnes of grain crops.

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