By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm
Glacier Farm Media MarketsFarm – Intercontinental Exchange canola futures extended its rally on Friday to a fourth consecutive session. Prices finished at levels not seen since December 2023.
Tightening canola supplies continued to be a major driver in the upswing. The Canadian Grain Commission reported canola exports surpassed 7.50 million tonnes this week, the same amount Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada projected for 2024/25. There are still 15 weeks left in the marketing year.
An analyst suggested AAFC could go negative with its estimate on feed waste dockage for canola until Statistics Canada revises its call on the oilseed’s production for 2024/25. However, should that occur, it wouldn’t be until September at the earliest.
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Outside support for canola was mixed on Friday. There were gains in Malaysian palm oil and Chicago soymeal but declines in Chicago soybeans and soyoil while European rapeseed was mostly lower. Upticks in crude oil spilled over into the vegetable oils.
The Canadian dollar inched up on Friday afternoon with the loonie at 72.14 U.S. cents compared to Thursday’s close of 72.09.
There were 58,308 contracts traded on Friday, compared to 58,092 on Thursday. Spreading accounted for 30,584 contracts traded.
Prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne:
Price Change Canola May 697.30 up 4.90 Jul 701.80 up 4.40 Nov 660.40 up 3.30 Jan 666.10 up 5.00
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Friday along with soyoil, but soymeal edged higher.,
There’s still confusion over possible trade talks between the United States and China. The latter has remained adamant that no talks have or are taking place, but U.S. President Donald Trump continued to say negotiations are underway. However, Trump refused to provide any details. Meanwhile, China offered to provide some relief to its tariffs on its U.S. imports but excluded soybeans from the measures.
The CME Group announced the daily limit for soybean futures will be lowered five cents at 85 cents per bushel effective May 1. The daily limit for soyoil will be cut from 0.40 of a cent to 0.35 cents per pound. The limit for soymeal will stay at US$25 per short ton.
Paraguay, the world’s third largest exporter of soybeans, is being adversely affected by fluctuating prices as United States tariffs hit Argentina and Brazil. Landlocked Paraguay is dependent on exporting its soybeans to crushing plants to those countries.
The planting of Ukrainian oilseeds includes 1.24 million hectares of sunflowers and almost 188,000 of soybeans. APK-Inform forecast Ukraine total soybean area at upwards to 2.35 million hectares, down 13 per cent from last year.
CORN futures were higher on Friday for a second session, pushed up by gains in crude oil
The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced a private sale of corn to Mexico. It’s comprised of 130,000 tonnes of old crop and 105,000 of new crop.
CME will lower the daily limit for corn futures by five cents at 30 cents/bu. as of May 1.
Japan indicated it’s willing to increase imports of U.S. corn as part of a trade deal. Japan is currently the number two foreign buyer of U.S. corn, at 10.09 million tonnes so far in 2024/25.
Ukraine reported two million hectares of grain have been planted so far this spring, including 705,000 of corn.
WHEAT futures were narrowly mixed on Friday, with small upticks Chicago as Kansas City and Minneapolis eased back.
Ahead of the USDA’s crop progress report on Monday, the trade believes a good deal of planting progress occurred this week.
Rain has been forecast for the hard red wheat areas of the U.S.
CME will reduce the daily limit for wheat futures by 10 cents at 40 cents/bu.
France reported its soft wheat crop rated 74 per cent good to excellent, down one point from last week.
Ukraine said almost 200,000 hectares of spring wheat have been planted so far this year.
