ICE Canada Review: Canola drops with spec selling

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Published: May 26, 2016

By Dave Sims and Phil Franz-Warkentin, Commodity News Service Canada

Winnipeg, May 26 – THE ICE Futures Canada canola market suffered losses on Thursday, due to speculative selling.

Losses in US soyoil and soybeans helped weigh down the market.

Wet weather across Western Canada has partially alleviated concerns over excess dryness, according to a report.

Slow farmer selling and the higher Canadian dollar were bearish for prices.

Canola is looking pricey relative to some other oilseeds, and US farmers are continuing to plant more soybeans instead of corn.

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However, gains in European rapeseed futures and Malaysian palm oil limited the losses.

Commercial demand lent some support to the market.

Around 18,974 canola contracts were traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when around 17,334 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for about 6,958 of the contracts traded.

Milling wheat, barley and durum were all untraded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were mixed on Thursday, although the most active nearby contracts were all lower as traders took profits after Wednesday’s rally.

After hitting their highest levels in 20 months, soybeans were due for a correction from a chart standpoint, according to participants. The nearby July contract traded just below the key US$11.00 per bushel mark at one point, but ran into resistance and turned lower.

Disappointing weekly export sales data contributed to the softer tone in soybeans.

However, the overall technical trend remains pointed higher, which made any losses a good buying opportunity, said analysts.

SOYOIL futures were down on Thursday.

SOYMEAL futures were up on Thursday, as spreading against soyoil provided some support. Production concerns in Argentina helped underpin soymeal as well.

CORN futures in Chicago were up by one to three cents per bushel on Thursday, as ideas that producers will be switching some acres out of corn and into soybeans provided support.

Strong weekly US corn export sales of over 1.5 million tonnes (old and new crop combined) were also supportive.

However, farmer hedges and speculative profit-taking at the highs did limit the advances, as corn hit its strongest levels in ten months.

WHEAT futures in Chicago were up by 12 to 15 cents per bushel on Thursday, with fund short-covering a feature.

Excess moisture in the Southern Plains was also supportive, as the rainfall is starting to raise production concerns.

Ideas that US livestock feeders are shifting their rations to include more wheat at the expense of corn were also supportive.

However, relatively favourable prospects in most wheat growing regions of the world did limit the gains.

– Russia’s SovEcon has raised its forecast for the size of the country’s wheat crop to 64 million tonnes, which was up by 2.9 million tonnes from an earlier estimate.

– Japan purchased 125,000 tonnes of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia in its latest weekly tender.

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