By Phil Franz-Warkentin
Glacier FarmMedia MarketsFarm – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Monday, with speculative short covering a feature.
The May contract moved back above its 20-day moving average, which was supportive from a chart standpoint. Gains in Chicago soybeans and European rapeseed futures also provided some spillover support, although soyoil and Malaysian palm oil held near unchanged.
France’s Strategie Grains lowered their estimate on the size of the 2024/25 European Union rapeseed crop to 18.3 million tonnes, which would be down by 100,000 tonnes from an earlier estimate and well below the 19.9 million tonnes grown the previous year due primarily to a reduction in seeded area.
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Australian 2023/24 canola production was pegged at 5.7 million tonnes by ABARES, which was up by 200,000 tonnes from the previous estimate and the third-largest canola crop on record, but still down by 31 per cent on the year.
There were an estimated 26,349 contracts traded on Monday, which compares with Friday when 33,467 contracts traded. Spreading accounted for 15,474 of the contracts traded.
SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were stronger on Monday, underpinned by speculative short covering to start the week.
The United States Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply/demand report on Friday, with adjustments to South American crop estimates to be followed closely.
While the advancing Brazilian soybean harvest remains a bearish influence, as newly harvested beans from the country make their way to export positions, production estimates continue to be revised lower due to an adverse growing season.
Weekly U.S. soybean export inspections came in at just over a million tonnes, which was down from the previous week, with total exports during the crop year to date running 20 per cent behind the year ago pace.
The USDA announced private export sales of 126,000 tonnes of soymeal to unknown destinations.
CORN was also supported by short covering, although the May contract ran into resistance after touching its 20-day moving average.
Weekly U.S. corn export inspections of 1.1 million tonnes were down slightly on the week, but total inspections so far this crop year of about 20.6 million tonnes were up by 35 per cent on the year.
The USDA announced private export sales of 110,000 tonnes of corn to Taiwan this morning.
WHEAT was stronger across the board, with chart-based positioning a feature.
Australia’s ABARES forecast wheat production in the country at 26 million tonnes, which was up by half a million tonnes from an earlier estimate but still down by 36 per cent from a year ago.
The USDA announced weekly wheat inspections of about 353,000 tonnes, with total wheat movement to date running 17 per cent behind last year’s pace.
