U.S. grains: Wheat futures fall on bigger-than-expected plantings, stocks

Winter wheat plantings exceed analysts' expectations; USDA also cuts corn, soybean crop estimates in South America

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Published: January 12, 2022

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CBOT March 2022 wheat (candlesticks) with K.C. March 2022 wheat (yellow line) and MGEX March 2022 wheat (green line, left column). (Barchart)

Chicago | Reuters — U.S. wheat futures extended losses on Wednesday after the U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that domestic farmers planted more acres than traders anticipated.

Larger-than-expected USDA estimates for wheat inventories added pressure on the market, analysts said, after supply concerns drove Chicago Board of Trade futures prices to nine-year highs in November.

The high prices helped to encourage more plantings while bakers and millers worried about poor weather reducing harvests of high-protein wheat, analysts said.

U.S. growers planted 34.397 million acres of winter wheat, up two per cent from 2021, USDA said in a crop report. Analysts surveyed by Reuters expected 34.255 million.

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USDA pegged domestic wheat ending stocks at 628 million bushels, above the average estimate for 608 million, and the global carryout at 279.95 million tonnes, above expectations for 278.67 million.

“Wheat got a bearish carryover number and a bearish acreage number,” said Ted Seifried, chief agriculture strategist for the Zaner Group.

The most-active CBOT wheat contract settled down 12-1/2 cents at $7.57-3/4 per bushel (all figures US$).

Corn and soybean futures advanced at the CBOT after USDA reduced South American production estimates and pegged world ending stocks below analysts’ expectations.

Hot, dry conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina have raised doubts about harvest prospects. Brazilian food supply and statistics agency Conab on Tuesday lowered its 2021-2022 forecast for the country’s soybean and corn production.

“We’re going to be hyper-, hypersensitive to weather down there,” said Jim Gerlach, president of U.S. broker A/C Trading.

USDA pegged global soybean ending stocks at 95 million tonnes, below analysts’ estimates for 99.93 million and USDA’s December estimate of 102 million.

“The most bullish number on there was global stocks for soybeans,” said Craig Turner, senior ag broker at Daniels Trading.

Most-active soybean futures settled up 12-3/4 cents at $13.99-1/4 per bushel. Corn futures ended down two cents at $5.99 per bushel.

— Reporting for Reuters by Tom Polansek in Chicago, Gus Trompiz in Paris and Naveen Thukral in Singapore; additional reporting by Karl Plume and Christopher Walljasper in Chicago.

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