(Resource News International) –– Statistics Canada is set to release an updated grain and oilseed stocks in all positions report Wednesday (Sept. 8), with market participants looking to plug in final 2009-10 carryover figures to adjust their 2010-11 balance sheets.
The StatsCan survey results will be for the period ended July 31, with the numbers for canola, oats, wheat and barley likely to garner the most attention.
“This has been quite the year to try to nail down numbers, as there are still questions surrounding 2009-10 production and usage figures,” said Ron Frost, a Calgary-based analyst with Agri-Trend Marketing and the Frost Forecasting Corp.
Read Also
U.S. grains: Corn rebounds from contract lows on short covering, bargain buying
Bargain buying and short covering lifted U.S. corn futures on Monday after the market slid to contract lows on expectations for strong U.S. output, traders said.
“Yields and acres definitely need to be adjusted and it’s hoped the report will help clarify some of these.”
Gerald Klassen, manager for GAP Grains in Winnipeg, agreed the numbers will be used to adjust 2009-10 and 2010-11 supply/demand tables for the various crops and will also provide a good indication of feed usage for wheat, barley and oats.
With worldwide wheat output in question, Canada’s wheat stocks level will also be a very important number, said Ken Ball, a broker with Union Securities in Winnipeg.
The amount of oats on farm and in commercial positions will also be looked at, as there seem to be discrepancies in the export usage ideas, said Mike Jubinville, an analyst with ProFarmer Canada in Winnipeg.
Because official statistics do not take into account direct Canadian oat movement into the U.S., the export totals can be off and may impact the amount of the commodity still sitting on the farm.
The durum numbers in the report may also receive a bit more attention than normal, Klassen said, noting that with Canada`s 2009-10 durum export program not exactly pushing along at a strong pace, the domestic usage numbers become more important.
Jubinville indicated the durum ending stocks level in Canada could topple previous records.
In terms of canola, the industry is fairly aware of the export and domestic needs, as that data is available on a weekly basis, Jubinville said.
“So if there is a surprise in the canola numbers it will come in the feed, waste and dockage category,” he said.
Jubinville said the feed, waste and dockage figures are the numbers economists use as a fudge factor, when they can’t explain why there is more or less inventory than they thought there was.
Table 1. Pre-report expectations for grain and oilseed ending stocks as of July 31, 2010. Figures are in millions of metric tonnes.
| Trade estimates | ||
| July 31, 2010 | July 31, 2009 | |
| All wheat | 6.500-7.358 | 6.547 |
| Durum | 2.599-3.040 | 1.903 |
| Barley | 2.276-2.450 | 2.843 |
| Oats | 1.075-1.700 | 1.527 |
| Canola | 1.100 – 1.355 | 1.659 |
| Flaxseed | 0.200 – 0.375 | 0.229 |
