There is a large, deep area of low pressure spinning over the northern half of Hudson Bay along with a building area of high pressure over the Yukon. The counterclockwise rotation around the Hudson Bay low will create a north to northwesterly flow across the Prairies. This will allow the Yukon high to drop southward. So, after an early start to winter, which was then replaced by a return to fall with warm to even record-breaking warm temperatures, it looks like the parts of the Prairies are going to slide back into winter, at least in regard to temperatures. The big question is whether we will see any snow over the next seven days and, right now, that looks doubtful.
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We will start off this forecast period with a weak Pacific low dropping southeastward out of the Prairies and the Yukon high beginning its trip to the southeast. This will finally bring an end to the warm temperatures the southern half of the Prairies has been experiencing. Alberta could see a few flurries as the Yukon high builds southward, but moisture looks limited. Otherwise, most areas will see sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures. The high will drop into the northern U.S. by Friday or Saturday taking the coldest air with it. The pressure gradient between this high and the large area of low pressure over northeastern Canada is forecasted to develop, which will bring strong westerly to northwesterly winds right across the Prairies starting on Friday and lasting until at least Sunday over the eastern half of the Prairies. Winds look to ease off by Monday as a reinforcing region of arctic high pressure builds southward, and the northeastern Canadian low moves off to the east.
Alberta
With the centre of the Yukon high dropping through Saskatchewan, most of Alberta will be spared from very cold temperatures. Except for some clouds and flurries on Wednesday and into early Thursday over southwestern regions, expect plenty of sunshine along with daytime highs in the 0 to -3 C range with overnight lows falling to around -10 C. Warmest temperatures are expected in the southwest, while the coldest temperatures will be found over eastern regions.
Over the weekend, the high will have dropped by to the south allowing for temperatures to moderate with daytime highs warming back above the freezing mark. Expect daytime highs over southern regions to be in the +4 to +7 C range with 0 to +4 C over more central and northern regions.
Saskatchewan
This region will see the coldest air from the Yukon high. Expect daytime highs to drop into the -5 to -10 C range by Thursday with overnight lows falling to around -15 to -18 C. Luckily the cold high will quickly move off into the northern states and allow for a warmer westerly flow to develop by the weekend. Expect daytime highs to warm back up toward the freezing mark by Saturday under plenty of sunshine. Winds might become a bit of an issue over the weekend as there is the potential for a strong pressure gradient to develop across the region. Wind forecasts are always tough, but just be aware of the potential and watch for updates.
To start the last week of November the weather models show a weak but broad area of high pressure forming over the region. This should bring a continuation of sunny to partly cloudy skies along with lighter winds. Temperatures look to remain on the mild side with daytime highs hovering within a few degrees of freezing. There is a small chance of light snow over central regions on Tuesday or Wednesday and some Pacific energy gets pulled in but confidence in this feature is very low.
Manitoba
It looks like Manitoba will see a bit of a longer stretch of cold air as the province will be in a northerly flow ahead of the Yukon high, then will see it come more northwesterly to westerly as the high moves off to the southeast. Expect plenty of sunshine from Wednesday to Saturday along with cooler temperatures. Daytime highs are forecasted to be in the -7 to -11 C range with overnight lows falling to around -16 C. It looks like there might be a brief warmup over the weekend as our flow becomes more westerly. These westerly winds may become quite strong over the weekend.
To start the last week of November, the weather models show the flow over Manitoba reverting to a strong northerly flow as the northeastern Canada low retrogrades westward. This will drop temperatures down by about 5 C from the weekend values. There is also the chance of some light snow across the region as energy flows around the low to our northeast. Confidence in this part of the forecast is low, so watch for updates should there be significant changes.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
