It’s looking like we’ll soon see an end to the hot conditions of the last few weeks as upper ridging collapses and the upper flow across the Prairies moves to a straight west-to-east flow. Under this pattern, we should see textbook summer conditions. The only downside is there aren’t many chances of precipitation.
To start this forecast period, we still have some weak upper-level ridging in place that will continue to bring mostly sunny skies and hot temperature to the southern Prairies. This ridge is forecasted to weaken and collapse by Friday. This will result in a zonal (west-to-east) flow across the Prairies and a rather weak pressure pattern with no strong areas of low pressure or high pressure dominating the picture.
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Early next week the weather models are showing a strong surface high dropping southwards out of the Northwest Territories. This will bring a continuation of sunny to partly cloudy skies and nice, summery temperatures. Usually these northern highs bring cooler conditions but the source region of this high is warm thanks to it being the peak heating period of the year.
Alberta
Southern regions will see a couple more days of sunny and hot conditions. Expect daytime highs to be in the low to mid-thirties with overnight lows falling to around 15 C. Further north, temperatures will continue to be warm with daytime highs in the upper twenties. A weak system tracking in from B.C. could trigger some afternoon thunderstorms on both Wednesday and Thursday before moving off into northern Saskatchewan.
Over the weekend, an area of low pressure is forecasted to begin forming over the northwestern U.S. The counterclockwise flow around this low, combined with the clockwise flow around an area of high pressure over northern regions, will pull moisture into the southern half of the province and push it up against the mountains.
Expecting increasing clouds on Sunday, along with the good chance of showers and thundershowers late Sunday and into Monday. With the clouds and showers, expect temperatures to peak in the low twenties. Northern regions, thanks to an area of high pressure, will see sunny to partly cloudy skies and daytime highs in the mid-twenties. Overnight lows will fall into the low teens. This forecast period will end with clearing skies across the south along with seasonable temperatures.
Saskatchewan and Manitoba
A short forecast for this period. Southern and central regions will see at least three more days of hot and sunny conditions thanks to the slowly collapsing upper ridge. Most regions will see daytime highs in the low thirties with Saskatchewan seeing the best chance of some mid-thirties highs. Overnight lows look to remain in the 15 to 18 C range.
An area of low pressure tracking across the far northern Prairies is forecasted to drag a weak cold front southward late on Friday. This front may be enough to trigger the odd thunderstorm with the best chance of storms being over Manitoba.
Skies should quickly clear on Saturday with daytime highs dropping into a more comfortable mid twenty-degree range. Along with cooler daytime highs, overnight lows will also be more comfortable, falling into the 10 to 14 C range.
The first couple of days of the long weekend look to see sunny or partly cloudy skies with a continuation of seasonable temperatures.
On Monday the northwestern U.S. low is forecasted to track eastwards and bring cloudy skies to Saskatchewan along with a good chance of showers and thundershowers. This low will move into Manitoba late on Monday bringing showers and thundershowers overnight Monday and into Tuesday.
— Daniel Bezte is a teacher by profession with a B.A. (Hon.) in geography, specializing in climatology from the University of Winnipeg. He operates a computerized weather station near Birds Hill Park, Man. Contact him via email with your questions and comments.
